Politics is an instinct. About making the right gesture at the right time. Grabbing the opportunity when it presents itself. Sensing which way the wind blows. And going for the jugular. It’s also war. Knowing when to pull the pin out of the grenade, make the most of the confusion that ensues. That’s strategy. The Politics of War.

And that’s the game that went into play on Saturday as Congress leader Sonia Gandhi finally put Karnataka back on the party’s long awaited battle-plan, homing in on the people’s misery brought on by the drought as key to winning back the state. (Why the Sadananda Gowda government is unable to kick-start its own drought plan, rather than hand it over on a platter to the ‘centre’, is beyond comprehension.)

But the complacency that lost the party Punjab and led them to misread the hunt for a yuva raj in Uttar Pradesh could easily be revisited in the BJP’s southern bastion. Congressmen may tell her otherwise. But the shock win in Udupi-Chikmagalur, from where Indira Gandhi once turned her own fortunes around, had more to do with the BJP shooting itself in the foot and less with the resurgence of the Congress in the state. A Congress that continues to be fractious, divided, with more generals than soldiery, won the seat, largely by default. Karnataka, like UP and Punjab, is ripe for the picking. There for the Congress to lose. Or win.

No question that the Congress has played the waiting game well, bided its time, kept its powder dry while all else have shot out their ammo and their mouths. Could not have been easy sitting it out. Or refusing to rise to the bait when the saffronists were buying up every legislator of every persuasion who was willing to switch sides, while the Janata Dal (S) threw its darts at the larger than life target that presented itself in the shape of B.S. Yeddyurappa and his cohorts.

The Congress inaction — barring the one standout, the Bengaluru to Bellary rally — and its silence on most matters of import, has been deafening. Many of the young bucks in the Congress confessed they had been told to zip it up, definitely not part of any Kamaraj plan, new or old. But even when the elders, entrenched in the ranks and unwilling to give up the perks and privilege of office — definitely not the same as Kamaraj’s men - spoke out, it was a confused, contradictory message that reflected the party’s biggest bane — their many leaders’ refusal to salute or stand by one man as their leader.

It’s a problem that endures. As a first step, for the party to nail any election, the instinctive ‘crush my rival and his son’ syndrome, must be the venom extracted to defang the beast of envy. Four years down the line and perhaps some of the rationale behind the Congress’ strategy of allowing the BJP to self-combust, and letting the JD(S) do its dirty work for them, while staying scrupulously out of the fray, may make sense. The mantra — don’t get your fingers dirty!

But while BSY’s unceasing refrain of the cases being rooted in political vendetta has seen the Congress rebuttal of a ‘no smoke without fire’ line, it’s also weak and confused. A wait and watch policy that lets the fires scorch and burn down the saffron hearth rather than actively stoke it while waiting for Delhi to decide when the time is right for an attack, can no longer hold good. No election is won from the top down.

It’s time to get moving. The revulsion that is sweeping through the chattering classes as well as among the BJP’s diehard supporters in the districts where they hold sway, is unprecedented. There can be no bigger case in point than a Sonia Gandhi being picked by the math to be their guest at the signature event of the year. An event that saw not one seer but two in the pantheon, both Vokkaliga and Lingayat, both the main communities in the state, present.

The analyses on the dramatic swing away from the pro-math BJP to the more secular Congress has left the BJP in shock. Clearly, the maths who have so long backed their mascot BSY are no longer hedging their bets. The taint of corruption is only half the story. With BSY being edged out of the picture and the party being run increasingly from Delhi — talk about a role reversal — the maths, repository for the cash infusions that keep their education behemoths alive, know that support for the BJP, so long their ring of steel, could erode. Hence, BSY and his man, Somanna being left out in the cold by the same seer they ran to when the former chief minister was released from jail!

In a clutch of southern states in turmoil, Karnataka could even be the one state that could deliver critical numbers into the Congress lap. BSY could still pay the 105 year old a visit and rebuild the canny veteran’s confidence in him. But whether he’s personally lost out on the enormous clout wielded by the maths or not, the BJP is paying for its inability to contain the erosion of public trust; its protection of the likes of Bangaru Laxman (however inconsequential the amount of monies pilfered 11 years ago) and not taking a clear line on Karnataka, partly responsible for the loss of the math’s munificence.

With the Congress vote not rooted in one particular caste and its ability to draw on sentiment rather than parochialism, unlike the BJP and the JD(S), its drawback has been the way it has lamely ceded political space and its ability to self-destruct. One Sonia visit has certainly galvanised the rank and file. Will it be enough to pull it of its apathy is the question.

If reports are to be believed, the BJP and its loyalists in the bureaucracy and intelligence are spooked by a survey that can only be a cause for further disquiet. The survey shows that if polls were to be held today, the BJP would win less than four seats in a city where they hold 20 or more of the 28 seats. In the state, the same survey shows that instead of the BJP, it would be the Congress which would hold 110 odd seats.

If — post an election — the Congress is willing to seek outside support, the JD(S) which continues to hold the Old Mysore district, and BJP rebel and Janardhan Reddy acolyte Sreeramulu, wooed by the mine rich Anil Lad, could bring in the necessary numbers. As for Sonia Gandhi, in choosing to walk — rather than swish past in a fancy four wheel drive — towards the women of drought-hit Nagasamudra and through the slushy embankment of the dried up lake that until two to three years ago was their lifeline, the signal was unequivocal — she’s willing to get her fingers dirty.

Karnataka is pinging on the Congress’ radar. The BJP hasn’t fallen. Not yet. But the math visit is an opening like no other for the Congress, which is looking increasingly long in the tooth. Where are its young leaders? Is there any fight left in this particular dog?

As someone once said, “The brave may not live forever, but the cautious do not live at all.”