The promise of rain may be there in the air, but that's all it has remained for a while now in the city, which has remained dry despite the monsoon having set in over the state over a fortnight ago. Unfortunately for Bengalureans the city has received just 4 mm of rain as against the 87 mm it usually records during this period.

The situation is not much better in the rest of the state either as rainfall has been below normal in all areas except the ghats and the coastal districts. Water levels are falling in major reservoirs, with the KRS dam having a little over 70 feet of water on Wednesday evening as against the 97 feet of water it had in June last year.

Director of the Indian Meteorological Department- Bengaluru , B Puttanna, however, says the monsoon cannot be termed a failure just yet. “You may be surprised to know that GKVK received 15 mm rainl Wednesday night. A good one hour of rainfall over Bengaluru will set things right," he assures, adding that rainfall is expected over interior parts of the state, including Bengaluru in the next week.

Explaining the poor rainfall received so far, director of the State Natural Disaster Mentoring Centre , V S Prakash says a large amount of moisture from the Bay of Bengal has drifted away towards the north due to cyclonic activity over China, leaving little to bring rain to the state. "Every monsoon has its own characteristic. Last year the monsoon failed at the fag end while this year it has started on a weak note. Every monsoon is different,” he notes, cautioning against comparing the monsoon's performance to previous years to gauge its strength or otherwise.

Foodgrain production may take a hit
With Bengaluru and its surrounding areas still waiting for their share of rain this monsoon, there's worry that farmers may not have enough water for their crops and food production may take a beating. But experts feel it is not time yet to push the panic button and farmers can afford to wait for a while more for rain.

“The main crop season in the eastern dry zones of Karnataka, including Bengaluru, is kharif, which begins in the first week of July and ends by the second week of November. We will not be in a desperate situation unless we receive no rain even by the end of July first week. The government too is talking about going in for cloud seeding only if there is no rain by the end of June. Farmers can afford to wait,” says Dr MB Rajegowda, professor, agrometeorology, Gandhi Krishi Vignyan Kendra, Bengaluru, pointing out that many regions in Karnataka are receiving good rainfall already and normal rain is expected over South Interior Karnataka, including Bengaluru, soon. “A normal rainfall will definitely compensate for the deficit witnessed so far and will also take care of the needs of the kharif season as sowing starts only in the first or second week of July. I don't see a reason to worry,” he adds.

Mr V S Prakash, director, Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre, says farmers bank on traditional wisdom in these situations. "When the they don't receive adequate rainfall in the early days of the monsoon, farmers change their cropping patterns. Already many are opting for ‘contingency crop planning’ and have decided to sow by the end of June or mid -July depending on the rain,” he observes.

But Mr Prakash strongly advocates water conservation programmes by the community to ensure adequate water for food production. “The farmers too must cultivate crops that are less water intensive. Minor irrigation tanks and tanks in command areas of major reservoirs should be desilted and used to store water. Enhancing the connectivity between these tanks will mitigate the risk to agriculture in times of poor rain, ” he adds.