While the world is on tenterhooks about the safety and security of Pak’s nukes under the looming threat of Pak military/ISI raised/supported terrorist groups stealing or getting control of them, James P. Farwell in his new book The Pakistan Cauldron brings out that while Pakistan may be a dysfunctional country, its military is disciplined and ruthless in its efforts to protect its nuclear arsenal and how hard the government has tried to protect the secrecy of the nuclear programme. While that may well be so, the attack on PNS Mehran (Pak Navy’s main shore base) in May 2011, shortly after Osama bin Laden was killed, only raises the possibility of Pak’s nukes being stolen.
Set in four parts, the book in part 1 examines Mr Khan’s activity and Mr Musharraf’s callisthenics to silence Mr Khan and to protect Pakistan’s nuclear secrets as well as his “communications strategy and tactics” attempted for Pakistan’s interests. It must also be noted that Mr Musharraf’s tenure, when Pakistan received substantial arms and monetary aid from the US for fighting against the same terrorists which Pakistan Army/ISI has been covertly supporting, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal grew significantly with Chinese assistance.
Pakistan’s clandestine nuclear network, how its arsenal developed over thirty years with US aid money and how that technology was sold to countries hostile to the US and the West, has been well researched by investigative writers Adrain Levy and Catherine Scott-Clark in their book Deception (Penguin Books).
The second part of the book dwells on careers of and conflicts between Benazir Bhutto and Mr Musharraf as well as events related to her assassination. Part three looks at factors, fallout and the mystery of Benazir’s assassination and the fourth part titled A Nation on the Brink deals with the aftermath.
Assessing the historical legacy and influence of Benazir Bhutto, the book brings out that Pakistan intelligence did not hesitate to lie and even plotted to assassinate its own PM and it uncovers the truth about the attitude of Pakistan’s intelligence community to her return to Pakistan in 2007 and what they most feared.
In fact what the book explains about Pakistani power players using communication to compete for power and consolidate their grip on power, is nothing but the rampant and frequent use of lies, half-truths, repeated denials etc.
Pakistani journalist Amir Mir interviewed on his book, The Bhutto Murder Trail: From Waziristan to GHQ stated that five weeks before her assassination Bhutto and he exchanged emails and that hardly five hours before her death, she was in high spirits. During their last meeting in Lahore, she said twice, “You can name Musharraf as my assassin if I am killed.”
Mir said that his conclusion was based on extensive research and investigation and that not only did Mr Musharraf had prior knowledge of the assassination plot, The Pakistan Army and the ISI too were involved.
Depicting the dynamics that are in play in Pakistan’s current constitutional controversy that has led to Prime Minister Gilani’s indictment, which are blowbacks from Pakistan Army’s anger at President Zardari for being too pro-American, it may be the only book so far that (a) shows how the culture of conspiracy operates in practice, using the Raymond Davis controversy and the attack on Bin Laden to illustrate the odd-ball dynamics of this political culture. (b) examines US-Pakistani relations strategically and explains what makes Pakistani politics tick, including how the nation’s weak identity and culture that breeds conspiracy theory, assassination, and a sense of betrayal functions.
Mr Farwell’s background as a national security expert and a political consultant enables him to explain and assess the impact of the Bin Laden raid and how that has affected Pakistani politics. Observing that what is transpiring currently is the outgrowth of over five decades of Pakistani politics, the book provides insights into why Pakistan -US cooperation has become so difficult. With the author also being an experienced litigator, the book evaluates how then President Musharraf mishandled the aftermath of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination.
Anil Bhat, a retired Army officer, is a defence and security analyst based in New Delhi