That West Asia is on boil is seldom news, but the convulsions that have shaken Tunisia compelling its President, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, to flee the country for the present is a portent for a new phase of unrest in the region. The tipping point came with an unemployed graduate in a small town prevented from selling vegetables on a street corner to keep body and soul together because he did not have a permit. He set himself on fire later to die, and his young countrymen and — women went on days of rampage suffering deaths at the hands of armed police to hone in on the 23 years of autocratic rule to demand the president’s immediate departure.
The reverberations of Tunisian disturbances are reverberating around the Arab world. There have been smaller demonstrations on rising prices, unemployment and repression in next-door Algeria. A year after Mr Ben Ali took power in Tunisia, there was widespread rioting in Algeria. Controls were loosened, private newspapers were allowed and first multi-party elections were held. Recent rising prices were curbed because Algeria, as an oil exporter, has deep pockets. But small protests have also been held in Egypt, Morocco and Jordan.
For one thing, the 26-year-old self-immolator, Mohamed Bouazizi, has become an Arab hero overnight; for another, the large young literate Tunisian population exploited the new media such as Twitter and Facebook to frustrate strict censorship and spread its message around the country and in the wider Arab world.
There are so many fault lines in West Asia — Middle East to the rest of the world — that Tunisia and autocratic rulers and unemployment and corruption are only some of the elements in the present turbulence. Lebanon is facing a crisis because the powerful Hezbollah movement walked out of the fragile coalition government after failing to get Prime Minister Saad Hariri to repudiate a UN commission investigating the murder of his father in which Hezbollah is widely believed to be involved.
Hezbollah’s creation was inspired by Israel’s old invasion of Lebanon and it has gradually built itself into a powerful movement enjoying the support of Iran and Syria and has had a veto on Lebanese cabinet decisions after its induction, having won its spurs by fighting Israel’s last invasion to a stalemate. Traditionally, Lebanon is a barometer of the state of play in West Asia after having survived a long civil war. And the continued Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories merely strengthens Islamic terrorists. There is not even the pretence of a peace process in progress, US President Barack Obama having burnt his fingers because he did not realise the hammerlock of the American Jewish lobby on his freedom to give Palestinians justice.
Besides, the dramatic Tunisian happenings caught the US on the wrong foot. The long-term autocratic rulers of most of the countries of the region are staunch allies of Washington and the US treads on their dictatorial ways most gently. Indeed, US secretary of state Hillary Clinton was caught in the region and felt compelled to give her hosts a severe lecture on democracy. These are the familiar dilemmas of realpolitik. What leaves Washington embarrassed is the strident tone it generally adopts on the blessings of democracy.
With domestic politics leaving the Obama administration little room to help bring about resolution of the overarching Israeli-Palestinian conflict and tensions surrounding Iran accentuated by Israel’s attitude, Washington has little leverage in making bold moves. Obviously, West Asia cannot be fixed quickly. Most Arab rulers have believed in the blessings of the rod and give their citizens little freedom to express themselves. Corruption in a non-democratic setting is especially heinous because there is no scope to even protest about it. Thanks to WikiLeaks, the US ambassador in Tunis has detailed the life of luxury and opulence President Ben Ali’s relations have been leading, living in virtual palaces and entertaining special guests like himself on a monarchical scale with European delicacies flown in by a special plane.
It is difficult to assess how far the Tunisian example will infect the rest of the Arab world. Interestingly, the “war on terror” had distorted the scene because opposition and dissent had traditionally come from Islamists with different degrees of violence. In Tunisia’s case, the spontaneous opposition was secular in character and concerned bread and butter issues and corruption and unemployment.
In any event, there will be many nervous rulers in the Arab world even as Saudi Arabia gave the fleeing President immediate refuge. All eyes are fixed on Egypt and President Hosni Mubarak. He is apparently preparing his son Gamal to succeed him and took him to Washington on his rare visit last year. Recent moves by the President have reinforced curbs before elections. The Muslim Brotherhood, the most potent opposition force, is being further stymied and it is, of course, easy to conflate it with Islamic fundamentalism.
Both political circumstances and American needs therefore conspire to keep the traditional autocrats in power. And the atmosphere remains poisoned because the US is joined at the hips with Israel, which has a virtual veto over Washington’s moves in West Asia. Though the Arab world has found a new hero in Mohamed Bouazizi, the journey of the frustrated youth of this vast area will be long and arduous. In the end, something must give. The danger is that Israel’s continuing occupation and humiliation of Palestinians may yet bail out the autocrats. How can America resist fighting its “war on terror”, whatever the cost?