A democracy without a viable Opposition degenerates into one-party rule, subverting the polity. Initially, we had one-party rule for long. Jawaharlal Nehru, a true democrat in letter and spirit, also played the role of the Leader of Opposition. Under his daughter, Indira Gandhi, democracy became an autocracy and also hereditary. During the Emergency, democracy got totally eclipsed. Thereafter, four short-lived coalitions came to power. The V.P. Singh government of squabbling leaders fell in less than a year. The other three governments of Chandra Shekhar Singh, H.D. Deve Gowda and I.K. Gujral remained in power for few months only, with outside support from the Congress. They fell when the Congress withdrew support. Thus, one-party rule lasted for over half a century. In 1998 under the leadership of L.K. Advani, the BJP raised its tally in the Lok Sabha from two to 182. That was the harbinger of the end of one-party rule.
The prospects of political parties in parliamentary elections have been affected by our expanding middle class, now increasingly going to polling booths. Our two main political parties are the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The regional parties are dominant in their states without much presence outside. When national political parties do not have an absolute majority or are not close to it, they have to rely on support from regional parties. Thus, the latter’s bargaining power increases. They can even blackmail the ruling party.
At the time of Independence, the middle class was only two per cent; now it is 37 per cent. Forty per cent urban constituencies are now dominated by the middle class. This had a bearing on the 2009 general election and will again in 2014. The BJP’s opposition to the Indo-US nuclear deal, repeatedly blocking the functioning of Parliament and the then booming economy, weighed in favour of the Congress. The middle class wants good governance, economic development, inflation controlled and more jobs for the youth. It has little interest in Hindutva. The clout of the middle class was noticeable during the Anna Hazare movement and the December 16 gangrape in Delhi. The mishandling of these movements showed lamentable lack of good governance by the Congress.
Television, instant communications, higher literacy rates and greater awareness have affected the rural constituencies. Repeated mind-boggling scams have led to disgust with the Congress, compounded by rising prices, failing economy, lack of good governance and dynastic rule. Rahul Gandhi’s anointment at Jaipur made his de facto leadership de jure. His announcement of introducing internal democracy in the party is fine, but it cannot be ignored that neither his record in the Youth Congress nor his father’s declaration about power brokers did not get implemented. His references to his ancestry in his acceptance speeches have begun to sound jarring. He has been doing this too often. His father never did so.
Mr Gandhi is projected as a youth icon and the hope of the Congress. Under his leadership the party’s record in the Assembly elections in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya has not been inspiring. Yet, the Congress has a reasonable chance to bounce back to power after the next election. Its assets are unlimited money power, dynastic appeal, a totally united party and the TINA factor.
There has been disillusionment with the BJP for various reasons. Its crusade against corruption lacked shine because of its own record. Its former president was recently convicted of corruption and sent to jail. Nitin Gadkari did not do well as the party president. His giving a ticket to a former Bahujan Samaj Party Cabinet minister in Uttar Pradesh, a well known criminal, became counterproductive. He failed to take prompt action against B.S. Yeddyurappa in Karnataka. The party lost power in Jharkhand and was unseated after elections in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. Serious allegations of corruption and immoral business transactions sullied Mr Gadkari’s image. He lost a good chance to redeem his position by resigning till investigation cleared him, like Mr Advani had done in the hawala case. Despite all this, his patrons tried to get him elected uncontested for another term. This effort was torpedoed by Yashwant Sinha and the suicidal descent of the party was arrested. The compromise candidate, Rajnath Singh, despite not having done well in 2009, seems to have made a good beginning. The great challenge facing him now is to ensure complete unity in the party. In 2009, squabbling political leaders had been the party’s Waterloo.
The BJP has several eminent leaders, like Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj and Yashwant Sinha, who are great parliamentarians. It also has capable chief ministers in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, but they are yet to acquire the required image and mass base for Prime Minister. The two obvious choices are Mr Advani and Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi. The former has the longest record in politics and in Parliament, with an impeccable record of integrity and no dynastic ambitions. He changed the fortunes of the party, raising its tally to 182 in the Lok Sabha. His critics hold his age against him when he is physically fitter then most people half his age. Ronald Reagan in the US, Charles de Gaulle in France, Hindenburg in Germany, Winston Churchill in his second term in the UK and Morarji Desai in India were in their Eighties.
The other equally outstanding contender in the BJP for Prime Minister is Mr Modi. He has very justifiably earned an unparalleled national and international reputation for miraculous development in Gujarat. He has outstanding ability as an orator who connects extremely well with his audience. His recent speech at a college in Delhi took the uncommitted middle class by storm. However, his acceptability outside Gujarat and in the NDA is limited because of the intense propaganda against him for the 2002 Gujarat carnage. He should be made responsible for the BJP’s election committee for campaign and selection of candidates in the coming state Assembly elections. If the party does well in them he should be the obvious choice for Prime Minister from the BJP. But if it does not, Mr Advani should be the choice. He has greater acceptability in most non-BJP and non-Congress political parties. Mr Modi could then be inducted as deputy Prime Minister. The examples of Sardar Patel in the Congress government in the ’40s and Mr Advani in the NDA government are relevant. Mr Modi has his age in his favour. He could be Prime Minister in a later BJP government, or earlier if Mr Advani moves to Rashtrapati Bhavan in 2017.

The writer, a retired lieutenant-general, was Vice-Chief of Army Staff and has served as governor of Assam and Jammu and Kashmir