As the New Year unfolds, high-profile Assembly elections are claiming our attention. Last week, the Election Commission stole all the headlines when it ordered the Uttar Pradesh government to cover up chief minister Mayawati’s statues and those of her party symbol — the elephant — erected in parks and memorials in the state.

The elephant statues are being draped in pink sheets — a colour chosen because, I presume, it is not associated with any political party, and because it is, by all accounts, Ms Mayawati’s favourite.
The media has hundreds of funny stories during elections but this statue-draping episode is a cartoonist’s delight. A friend telephoned me from Dehra Dun and asked what will happen if a herd of elephants emerged from Rajaji Park? Would the EC officials chase them with pink bedsheets?
The “operation cover-up” has cost the exchequer `1 crore and may attract the attention of the Comptroller and Auditor General of India later.
But right now, all the attention is on the Uttar Pradesh election which is gaining momentum by the hour. Ms Mayawati is sure to exploit the “statue episode” during her campaign, though I am not sure if it will help or harm the Bahujan Samaj Party’s prospects. I do, however, worry about the fate of all these statues in case Ms Mayawati loses.
The BSP is under intense pressure because of the anti-incumbency wave, and Ms Mayawati’s last-minute action of sacking tainted ministers will have limited impact.
Ms Mayawati has released her list of candidates — 100 sitting MLAs, including ministers, have been dropped, and she has included 88 SC candidates, 113 OBCs, 85 from minority communities, including Muslims, and 117 upper castes, including 74 Brahmins — but she is yet to launch her campaign. She will definitely put up a formidable fight. While I place her with 110 seats, a strong resurgence is possible in the final weeks.
The major battle unfolding in Uttar Pradesh involves two young men — Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi and Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav. Both are battling for honours while fighting a seasoned campaigner in Ms Mayawati.
Mr Gandhi is at his aggressive best these days and seems determined to restore the image of the Congress lost over the past two decades. Few will doubt his ability to handle greater responsibility in the future. I give the Congress and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) 80-90 seats between them out of a total of 403 seats in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly. The battle for the minority vote between the SP and the Congress is crucial and will determine the overall lead patterns.
The SP is in the lead in Uttar Pradesh because Mulayam Singh Yadav has played his cards well. The exit of Amar Singh eliminated the dual power centre in the party, and put Mr Yadav in charge. From the selection of candidates and planning the electoral strategy to enforcing discipline in the party, the final decision on every issue now rests with him. He has connected well both with the party and the electorate, and ground reports indicate that he has high visibility these days — he is always available to the party cadres and is getting used to talking to the media. I foresee the SP winning 140 seats and if the current trend continues
then the benefit of a consolidation may well go in the SP’s favour.
A coalition government in Uttar Pradesh seems almost certain as no party is likely to get 202 seats on its own. The only combination that will give a stable government will be of the SP and the Congress.

I see the Congress winning the elections in Punjab and Uttarakhand. In both the states corruption is a major issue, and the BJP is a major offender. In Punjab, the Congress, led by Amarinder Singh, should secure 60-65 seats out of a total of 117, and the Akali Dal will hold its ground with
40-45 seats, but the BJP will fall from 19 to four, maximum six, seats.
A similar story is playing out in Uttarakhand, where the BJP yielded space to Anna Hazare and yoga guru Baba Ramdev to fight its political battles. Sadly, the BJP high command, if it exists in any form, speaks in many voices and acts in different directions, as we have seen in the induction and then rejection of a tainted former minister of the Mayawati government. It is a gloomy scenario in a party brimming with talent at every level.

2012 has started well for the political fraternity. The poor public response to the planned protests and mass arrests has put paid to Team Anna’s plans. The public has once again shown that it is three steps ahead of the political parties, and that even civil society activists are not immune from public scrutiny.
The UPA has had enough doom and gloom and is now headed for greater stability in 2012-2014. The confidence is visible. The results of the Assembly battle will be declared on March 6, 2012, and while there will be winners and losers in each situation, the pattern of the future may well go in favour of the Congress at the expense of the BJP. However, regional parties will hold their ground. We will have a period of relative peace before we enter the crucial Assembly elections in Gujarat expected to be held towards the end of the year.

The writer is a former Union minister