The seizures of cash by the Election Commission in four of the five poll-bound states may have tapered off. But money power in the Assembly elections is quite evident. The EC’s election expenditure monitoring cell had seized over Rs 42 crore in unaccounted cash in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Manipur till January 18. In Uttar Pradesh alone the seizure was to the tune of Rs 29.65 crore, while Punjab accounted for Rs 12.11 crore.

I am not surprised at these seizures, as the political system will find ingenious ways of financing their candidates. While everyone talks of the mythical qualities of morality and probity in public life the reality is very different on the ground. Every party has its own system but if we divide the seats into categories “A”, “B”, “C” based on winning potential we can safely assume that each candidate in each category will get amounts ranging from Rs 25 lakh to Rs 100 lakh.
In Uttar Pradesh alone, with four major parties fighting the election across 403 seats, we could see many new additions to the “millionaire list”, as many of the contestants conserve some of the “cash” they receive at election time. Illegal money circulates at every level in every party and there is always a small coterie that benefits the most from this extravagance. In case we have a split verdict, then formation of the coalition government in Uttar Pradesh may cost far more than the entire poll process!
The first phase of the Assembly elections is less than a month away. Every political party is doing its internal survey and many are doing a weekly check and are extremely well informed of the ground situation. I have rarely seen an election with greater media spread and find it difficult to keep up with the flow of information which comes via the Internet and the cellphone. It is quite amazing, what the technology revolution has done to the electoral system.
Last week reports suggest a closer fight than we had anticipated and there are important shifts likely in the coming weeks. I am giving my predictions (see table) for three states — Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Punjab.
Though many surveys will be available soon, my reading of the trend tells me that in Uttar Pradesh both the BSP and the Samajwadi Party (SP) are ahead of the Congress and the BJP. The trend may harden in their favour in the last two weeks as both have the organisation base to support their electoral efforts. The BSP cadre were not affected by the EC’s order about the statutes and have gained in sympathy. The trend to watch this week will be the battle between the BSP and the SP in eastern Uttar Pradesh.
Going by the information coming to me, I can foresee an intense battle ahead in all the three states. I still place the Congress ahead in Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur. But these are going to be very tough fights, where a few seats can swing votes in a short span of time.

Pakistan is in the middle of a crisis, where the very fate of its fragile parliamentary democracy is uncertain. And across West Asia we have seen absolute regimes being challenged. Look at the events in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen. In Syria thousands have perished. We see violence and chaos in Iraq and Afghanistan. With regard to the situation in Pakistan we have to remain on high alert, as the Army and the Inter-Services Intelligence there are under severe pressure. We cannot discount the possibility of increased activity in the Kashmir Valley; the sleeper units supported by banned outfits based in Jammu & Kashmir could become active once again. Moreover, revoking the Armed Forces Special Powers Act at the moment will be unwise. Chief minister Omar Abdullah has a difficult task on hand but in J&K the bigger picture based on threat perception must always prevail.
Life goes on and as I have said earlier politics, Bollywood and cricket dominate our lives. Apart from the Assembly elections in the five states, we see a great deal of action in West Bengal where chief minister Mamata Banerjee continues to establish her supremacy. The Congress as her ally has limited options in the state and should avoid confrontation. Ms Banerjee has to spread her wings to survive. While she may not win seats, clearly her objective is to establish the Trinamul Congress as a national party and she is thinking ahead for 2014. Tamil Nadu chief minister J. Jayalalithaa and her AIADMK is also looking ahead, and anyone with a potential of 30 seats in the Lok Sabha will look for a larger role. Besides the two leaders mentioned above, watch out for the moves of the cautious Nitish Kumar, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati and add to this list the name of Sharad Pawar who, thanks to his political acumen, functions well beyond the number of seats won by the NCP.

I must admit a deep sense of sadness in watching our fabled Test team get a thrashing in the last seven Test matches and the signals visible in England were again seen in the first Test against the West Indies (quite a mediocre team at the moment). However, everything is lost in the haze of the IPL and the financial boom for the BCCI. From all the players and all the support staff, be it the trainers or commentators, will anyone who is a beneficiary try to change the system for the future of the game in the country? TV audiences must have declined and for the first time in many years I switched off the television — I did not want to see our superstars humiliated.
Winning and losing are part of the game but the body language of skipper M.S. Dhoni was disappointing. He needs to rest and recuperate. I am loath to be critical of our cricket stars as they have done us proud for well over a decade. But then in life change is inevitable, so retirements should not be discussed but announced at the appropriate time. And this should happen after the fourth Test match ends in Australia. The strange thing is that if you study 100 great lives cutting across all disciplines you will find that 95 per cent of them made a mess towards the end of their careers, because they never knew when to retire. I sincerely hope that this does not happen to our
cricketers.

The writer is a former Union minister