I wrote last week about Team Anna and their foray into the political arena and the fact that Anna Hazare was taking for granted the huge public support on the issue of corruption. An adverse public reaction was expected. I must admit that I am shocked and very surprised at the speed with which public support for Mr Hazare and his crusade for the Jan Lokpal Bill has vanished. The low turnout was conspicuous at the MMRDA grounds in Mumbai, where lakhs of rupees had been paid for a ground that can take in 50,000 people, and many more lakhs were spent for night arrangements for the crowd. Even at the Ramlila Grounds this time (on December 27) there were less than 100 people to support the fast undertaken by Mr Hazare. There is little point in mentioning the 350 towns where Team Anna had announced protests.
There is no such thing as a total victory or a total defeat on a political issue but credibility, once lost, is very difficult to reclaim. In the case of Mr Hazare and his team one has the impression that their movement is now directed against the Congress Party and its leaders. Last heard, Mr Hazare has announced his intention to oppose the Congress in all the five Assembly elections. The public is three steps ahead of the political fraternity. If Team Anna opposes the Congress in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Uttarakhand, are we to assume that they are supporting the incumbent governments of the BSP, the Akali Dal and the BJP, and that corruption is not the main issue in these elections?
Mr Hazare retired hurt on the second day of the fast and returned to his village.
We wish him well as he recuperates. He has done his job by highlighting the issue of corruption, but he had also brought us dangerously close to anarchy and chaos.
The Lokpal Bill was debated in the Rajya Sabha as I write this article and look at the diverse views we are hearing on the subject. There are 187 amendments. Can this bill be passed in a hurry? Almost every political party has filed for change. We are looking at a very complicated piece of legislation and, along with the Lokpal Bill, we also have a Citizens’ Charter, the Judicial Standards and Accountability Bill and the Whistleblower Bill. I only hope that the UPA and the Congress, which had lost ground to Team Anna, will now not lose it to the Opposition, which in today’s context will include, besides the BJP, the regional parties.
Team Anna has been blown away temporarily but the issues it raised exist and will continue to wound the political fraternity. I am reasonably certain that anti-incumbency trends will hit every government tainted by corruption. Earlier, we had seen the AIADMK thrash the DMK in Tamil Nadu and the JD(U)-BJP combine smash the RJD in Bihar. I think this trend will intensify in the coming elections. There are corruption issues in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Goa. The voting public there may well do a much better job than the Lokayukta by voting out the corrupt.
Let us turn to the Lokpal Bill debate in the Rajya Sabha. I watched the entire proceedings till midnight and rarely have I seen three unexpected events in such rapid succession. The first was Mr Hazare’s protest fast in Mumbai. This received saturation coverage on social networks, and in the electronic and print media. The poor public response was a surprise. This was followed by the drubbing that India got in the first Test in Australia. Our fabled batting heroes had a very bad time and, sadly, the England story continues. We can look forward to a miracle in Sydney!
Midnight came and the third surprise struck. The Lokpal Bill debate in the Rajya Sabha hit a roadblock; from 7 pm onwards TV channels had been reporting that the Congress lacked a majority and was not able to deal with the Trinamul Congress. Reports suggested that Samajwadi Party and RJD members would create a disturbance and drag proceedings beyond midnight and the
legislative process would be carried forward to the Budget Session. TV cameras have recorded events and the public will see the recordings a hundred times and won’t need speeches and sermons. Neither will any blame-game work. Strange that the entire House was willing to sit the entire night to clear the amendments but the UPA was in full retreat. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and finance minister Pranab Mukherjee were both present. What can one say in situations of this nature?
Today’s account will not be complete without a mention of the crucial elections in Uttar Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh is crucial, and there may be changes in the electoral dynamics if the Lokpal Bill becomes an issue. Chief minister Mayawati and her Bahujan Samaj Party are showing signs of weakness while the SP is gaining ground. Ms Mayawati sacking 11 ministers in the past few months indicates that all is not well in the BSP. I hesitate to go into winning numbers at this stage but we see a coalition pattern emerging, and if the minority vote continues to consolidate and migrate towards Mulayam Singh Yadav and son Akhilesh, then the results of the last election may be repeated in the sense that the BSP and the SP may win 300 seats between them but with the SP ahead of the BSP. But then, the trend will be clearer as elections draw near.
The Congress, with Rahul Gandhi leading the charge, continues to impress. While it does not seem to have lost any ground since its impressive Lok Sabha performance in 2009 it will come under pressure in the upcoming Assembly elections, as the party organisation is still weak in many parts of the country. But the positive sign is that the party is giving the impression of 100 per cent effort and looking at the big picture for 2014. I think the SP, BSP and Congress will all be in a position to win in excess of 20 seats each. In our coalition era these are respectable figures. The BJP brings up the rear but all this and more can change as we run into political accidents on a daily basis.
Happy New Year, and may we have less confusion in 2012.

The writer is a former Union minister