The stakes for the next parliamentary polls are high. The Bharatiya Janata Party may project Gujarat strongman Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial nominee, who is then likely to take on the Congress’ young leader, Rahul Gandhi, at the national level as the campaign unfolds.

It is difficult to believe Mr Modi can positively contribute to this country’s future. Mr Gandhi, on his part, has not yet emerged as an ideological counterweight to Mr Modi.
One wonders whether the Congress Party is mindful of the seriousness of the emerging scenario. For one, it has not done the right thing by forcing home minister Sushilkumar Shinde to withdraw his statement on “saffron terror”. There were several incidents of hardline Hindutva forces having been accused of organising bomb blasts, and with considerable evidence. The most well known among them are the Mecca Masjid blast in Hyderabad in 2007 and the Samjhauta Express explosion. By retreating from his stand, Mr Shinde looked weakened, although he was factually and ideologically correct. In the process, the government and the ruling party also took a beating. Such failings on the part of the government at this pre-poll stage will be to the advantage of the leaders on the other side, notably Mr Modi.
His projection as the future Prime Minister is based on many calculations. For one, and most importantly, he will be the first Other Backward Class (OBC) leader to have been considered by a national party for the top governmental slot. Looks like the BJP, or the Sangh Parivar for that matter, will not make this aspect an open campaign plank. But the Sangh Parivar can be counted upon to initiate a silent, ground-level campaign in favour of Mr Modi. OBCs across the board would be pleased. However, once Mr Modi is projected as the prime ministerial candidate, Sangh Parivar’s other strategies will begin to unfold. For example, in order to intimidate Muslims, it may rope in more and more OBCs into the Hindu votebank and mobilise enough muscle power from the OBCs.
Not all in the BJP are enthused. The pro-Brahmin forces are not keen on projecting Mr Modi, even though they did appreciate his militant Hindutva posturing and the 2002 Gujarat offensive. Some of them were willing to support Sushma Swaraj, especially as she is from a Brahmin background. Generally, however, they are not keen on projecting a woman for the top slot.
When Mr Modi is pushing himself, they are inclined to push a woman as a compromise candidate. For the patriarchal Hinduvta Brahminical forces, Ms Swaraj is a better choice. Nonetheless, Mr Modi seems to be overcoming such hurdles by organising a “Jai Modi” (like Jai Hanuman) chorus at every party meeting. The pro-Sushma group is headed by L.K. Advani, not a Brahmin himself, but he is backing her for his own reasons. However, there are not many
takers for the “Sushma as Prime Minister”
campaign.
Let us look at an imaginary situation of
Mr Modi sitting in New Delhi as Prime Minister. What will be India’s future under his rule? Look back to when George W. Bush was contesting the 2000 presidential polls in the US. The Bush family was not well-disposed to the Islamic world. There were many Muslims who felt that Bush Sr’s government targeted Muslims and Muslim rulers. Bush Jr carried with him that legacy when he assumed power.
If Mr Modi becomes the Prime Minister, chances are that the Islamic world will be deeply disappointed and majorly concerned. What essentially stands against Mr Modi is the way his administration remained a silent spectator to the attacks by Hindu mobs on Muslims in the days following the Godhra train-burning incident. Also, Mr Modi has a habit of teasing the Muslim community with comments like, “Hum paanch, hamara pachees”, implying every male Muslim through his four wives has as many as 25 children. Also, in the Gujarat carnage, the methods adopted to kill men and women were far more brutal than what the Nazis employed against the Jews in the Holocaust.
Not just the Muslim world, others, too, have their misgivings about Mr Modi. Quite a few countries do not allow him to step on their soil, the US and the UK included. He is persona non grata for most. The decision to disallow a Modi visit was taken, significantly, by a US government headed by Bush Jr himself. That scenario has not changed much since.
The masses at the ground level, however, may not grasp the implications of voting
Mr Modi to power. Some BJP leaders know well the damage it can cause to the party and the country. The industrialists who are promoting Mr Modi have their own interest in mind. Significantly, those like Azim Premji, who plans to donate most of his wealth for education of the poor, are not supporting Mr Modi’s prime ministerial ambition. On the other hand, the Reliance group, which has done well because of the backing of Mr Modi, is enthusiastic about his candidature.
Strangely, in India, sections of the media also back the clamour for resurrection of the “Bharat Mata” image, a saner projection of the Hindu identity, to promote India’s interests. For various reasons, they see Mr Modi as the deliverer.
The fact is that the BJP is now power-hungry. It will bet on Mr Modi if it is sure he can help the party win more votes. The policies that the BJP pursues are, in a way, similar to the policies of the Bush father and son duo. Their policies alienated Muslims around the world. It will not be wrong to say that Osama bin Laden was a creation of the Bush Sr dispensation and its policies. So what is the guarantee that the policies of Mr Modi will not create another Bin Laden right here in India?
Can the police or the military finish off a terror network that is rooted in the anguish of people who believe that injustice was being done to them in many ways? It is well known how the Hindutva forces conducted themselves when a moderate like Atal Behari Vajpayee headed the Central government. It would be useful to know how these forces would present themselves under the leadership of Mr Modi.

The writer is director, Centre for the Study of Social Exclusion and Inclusive Policy, Maulana Azad National Urdu University, Hyderabad