Six months ago virtually every political analyst in West Bengal was of the opinion that Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamul Congress alliance would sweep the forthcoming Assembly polls. Now they are not so sure. The tide, some aver, is turning; Marxist prospects are once again brightening. Instead of a landslide now most predict a tough fight.
While Bengal’s voters might not be doing a major rethink, they certainly are hesitating. These last minute qualms point to a real concern about the future of the state, beset as it has been with years of stagnation and fading hopes.

The basis of the current irresolution seems to be the uncertainty surrounding Ms Banerjee’s capability to deliver the state from its travails. Her intentions are good but capabilities suspect. She has also a slew of advisers, mostly men with considerable experience and acumen. But her handicap is her own politics and ground conditions in the state.
The development challenge in West Bengal is monumental. To begin with the state’s population is huge; it was 80-plus million 10 years ago and is expected to be well above 90 million today, which is way higher than Germany’s population of 82 million (2010 estimate). The state’s density of population is the highest in the country and among the highest in the world (see table).
Not surprisingly, the pressure on land is enormous. Sadly, Ms Banerjee in the past has not supported the notion that industry can support far more hands and mouths than can agriculture. Her opposition to a few key industrial projects and smaller development projects around the state has encouraged a culture that completely resists land acquisitions. Should her party come to power, it is a given that the Opposition will use the same tactics against her and scuttle many a project.
Then there is the problem of a crumbling administrative apparatus. In the past decade or more, the Left government in power has presided over an ossifying state structure that cannot provide proper administration, development or dispense justice at the lower levels. Non-governmental organsiations (NGOs) too complain of huge functional problems at the grassroots caused by decrepit administrative structures and an increasingly obstructive Marxist hierarchy.
Turning around West Bengal would require a miraculous overhaul if not a complete resuscitation of the bureaucracy. Otherwise, even the best of intentions will not translate to grassroots development. Ms Banerjee’s track record in the Indian Railways does not inspire confidence. None of her colleagues have demonstrated any kind of administrative skills either. Under the circumstances, to expect Ms Banerjee to do a Narendra Modi in Bengal would be completely unrealistic.
Ms Banerjee’s shortcomings, however, are unlikely to have a significant impact on the outcome on the results of the Assembly polls. Her efficiency is not the issue; getting rid of the Marxists is. A tour of the state suggests that the electoral tide has decisively turned against the ruling Left Front. Evidence of a huge popular yearning for political change is mounting and palpable.
In many areas, Marxist grassroots workers claim they too would vote for a change of government. They say that even lower-level democratic structures such as the panchayats and zila parishads have become unreceptive and have come under the complete control of a static Marxist hierarchy. An interesting report done for the World Bank a few years ago, reported a dramatic decline in local participation in democratic institutions during the past one decade or so in the state. If this is a widespread phenomenon then a Trinamul victory would be substantial.
The next government, most agree, would be headed by the Trinamul Congress chief Ms Banerjee, who seems destined to be propelled to great heights by her powers of vitriol and rhetoric and not by ministerial performance.
The political implications of all this is not very reassuring. Bengal has long entered a period of high political risk. There is every reason to believe that a Trinamul victory would exacerbate rather than diminish potential conflict levels in the state.
Bengal will remain a high risk area for business and industry for some time to come. While trading activities are unlikely to be affected, setting up large industries would be subject to conflicting political pressures. Just as in the case of development initiatives, industrial initiatives too would face opposition in terms of land acquisitions, compensations and human resources.
It would be a huge mistake to assume that even a stunning electoral loss would lead to the destruction of the Left in West Bengal. The Left Front might collapse, given that it has been tottering for a while, and its principal constituent, the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), is likely to come into its own. The CPI(M) would nevertheless remain a powerful political force in the state for many decades to come. In the circumstances, it might have been more sagacious on the part of the Marxists leadership to actually prepare for an electoral defeat rather than to somehow prevent it from happening. That way they could have formulated a strategy for the tumultuous years ahead and looked to the polls five years in the future.

Indranil Banerjie is a defence and security analyst based in New Delhi