The New Year has not started well for the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government: Food inflation is spreading from onions and tomatoes to eggs and other daily essential items despite the fact that there is neither an increase in demand nor a fall in production; the entire Opposition seems determined not to settle for anything less than a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) in the 2G spectrum scam; and political alliances in major states are under threat.
Sometimes a series of issues combine to create a sense of uncertainty. But in chaotic situations it is best for both, the players and the spectators, to take a deep breath and act with utmost restraint.
We did well in 2010, but challenges to a 9 per cent gross domestic product growth in 2011 will confront us in every field. To achieve our target we require high standards of governance at the Centre and in the states.
There are compelling political incentives to focus on good, clean governance. The voting public has consistently rewarded leaders with integrity. We saw this happening to the Congress in Lok Sabha elections in 2009 where the party secured 206 seats (though their own internal estimate was 160-170 seats). We saw a similar trend in the cases of Sheila Dixit in Delhi, Narendra Modi in Gujarat, Naveen Patnaik in Orrisa, Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh, Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh and, most recently, Nitish Kumar in Bihar.
The government faces several issues of corruption and fraud today — the 2G spectrum scam, Commonwealth Games and several other smaller ones. The 2G spectrum case is in the Supreme Court, the Comptroller and Auditor General has come under fire but is holding his ground and the Central Vigilance Commission is in serious trouble. The credibility of the government and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is at stake and even the smartest legal arguments cannot convincingly explain the delay of over a year in probing the matter. It is no secret that coalition pressures had resulted in all this.
Sadly, the “harsh” language being used is only escalating the crisis in the public’s mind.
The country’s political agenda stands threatened with the Congress and the Opposition adopting an attitude of confrontation. The Opposition’s demand for a JPC will only intensify if the Congress takes a hard attitude. Credibility of the system is getting affected and this can dent many reputations. Much will depend on how the UPA and the Congress deal with this issue.
While their reasons may be justified, the fact is that the Opposition’s stance threatens to rip apart the fragile fabric of our archaic system of governance. No one seems to focus on the fact that political funding is the main culprit in all these scams. If we look at the 2G scam, does anyone believe that former telecom minister A. Raja was the only beneficiary of the thousands of crores that disappeared over a decade in the telecom ministry? The truth is that the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) was doing what every other party did and does to raise funds for their party. Of course, in the process, political leaders, their families and their support system, which includes lawyers, chartered accountants, the loyal media, business tycoons and traders, also become incredibly rich, and are then able to influence the outcome of probes.

Maharashtra, with the second largest chunk of seats in Lok Sabha (48), seems set to witness some serious political accidents. The tension between the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is getting out of hand. In practical terms, NCP chief Sharad Pawar has a wider set of options than the Congress. And with an unsettled situation in the Shiv Sena and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) watching as a predator we could see a new alliance in the state.
The situation is much worse in Andhra Pradesh where the Congress holds 32 out of 42 seats, but is now under pressure in all three regions of the state — Telengana is virtually lost to the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, Coastal Andhra seems to belong to the Telegu Desam Party and Chandra Babu Naidu and in Rayalseema, Congress rebel Jagan Reddy’s MPs will cut into the Congress vote.
If this situation continues, the Congress’ tally of 206 seats may well decline to 170-180 seats, with the BJP placed at 120-130 seats. The entire structure of who forms the government in Delhi can change if another 20-30 seats go to the regional parties.
I see a sharp increase in the tally of the Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh, Janata Dal (United) in Bihar and the Trinamul Congress in West Bengal.
We are in 2011 and general elections are due in 2014. In terms of strategy, the Congress should play for time and avoid hard stances. They may then be able to regain lost ground. The Congress must realise that in coalition politics even with a good performance it can only get 3 out of 10 votes polled. This itself indicates that conciliation rather than confrontation should be the approach. In 2014, there will be new issues based on the challenges of the future and in all probability good, firm governance will score heavily over communal and caste considerations.