The issue of Lokpal has once again taken centrestage. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh meeting with UPA allies on Wednesday was a success but the all-party meeting yielded little on the three contentious aspects of the Lokpal Bill — the inclusion of the Prime Minister, the lower bureaucracy and a citizens’ charter in the proposed anti-graft law. This is to be expected in the initial stages. Even if consensus is not reached with the entire Opposition, possibly there will be agreement with some of the parties. The fiasco for the government we saw on the FDI issue is avoidable.

Team Anna has taken a very aggressive attitude on the issue and remains rigid. Anna Hazare has signalled his intention to resume his fast from December 27, this time in Mumbai.
The battle lines are drawn and in these situations events overtake decisions. Even while the entire political fraternity and the self-appointed leaders of civil society battle for their own version of the Lokpal Bill we saw three crucial bills — Judicial Standards and Accountability Bill, Whistleblowers’ Protection Bill and Citizens’ Charter and Grievance Redressal Bill — cleared by the Union Cabinet on Tuesday. Team Anna wanted these three subjects brought under the Lokpal. This move was clearly a part of the UPA government’s strategy to steal much of the thunder of its political opponents. On the other side of the battle line the strategies of the BJP and the Janata Dal (United), along with the Akali Dal, go beyond the Lokpal issue and are aimed at electoral success in Uttarakhand and Punjab and an improved showing in Uttar Pradesh. The campaign by Team Anna against the Congress will help these parties, and there is nothing wrong with such quasi-electoral forays.
Politics is full of twists and turns but total agreement, as envisaged by Team Anna, looks rather difficult unless they evolve give and take on the matter. The stands being taken from time to time by the Congress and its allies on the one hand, and Team Anna, along with the BJP and the JD(U) as well as certain NDA allies on the other, indicate that both sides have made calculated moves. There is politics involved at every step and no one at this stage is quite clear about the likely impact of Mr Hazare on the electoral battles ahead. Team Anna can say what they want, but to achieve their ends they will have to take a political route. It would be good if Mr Hazare and Baba Ramdev, or anyone else for that matter, entered the electoral arena.

The five Assembly elections — in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur — are less than three months away and it’s time to shift into electoral mode. The decision of Team Anna to oppose the Congress would mean that Mr Hazare would be supporting the Opposition parties. Technically, Mr Hazare would be supporting the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh and the BJP-Akali Dal combine in Punjab. In Uttarakhand the party in power is the BJP, so the state might not see adversarial campaign by Mr Hazare. The Congress will no doubt see the negligible impact of Team Anna on the NCP in the civic polls in Maharashtra. Individual members of Team Anna, with their probity track record coming under a cloud, have provided adequate ammunition to the Congress, and the media is unlikely to take sides in the electoral battle.
The upcoming Uttar Pradesh elections continue to draw attention and I still see the BSP ahead of the others with the Congress in second position. If I may take into account the Ajit Singh factor, 12-15 seats will push the Congress-Rashtriya Lok Dal alliance ahead of the Samajwadi Party (SP), which clearly looks under a great deal of pressure. With Rashid Masood and Salim Sherwani, both former Union ministers, set to help its prospects in Saharanpur and Badaun respectively, the Congress is posing a serious challenge. In the coming months votes will consolidate for both the frontrunners unless the SP recovers its lost ground. The People’s Party has run into problems in its candidate selection and if it starts losing ground, the SP will gain.
As I write this article we have had a rather weak debate on the black money issue, on the millions and trillions lying in foreign banks. I wonder if there is any difference between videshi and swadeshi black money. The BJP’s adjournment motion on black money was defeated last Wednesday and I do not understand why we are so hypocritical about this issue as all senior politicians, more than anyone else, are involved in fund collections for their parties. Can anyone certify whether the funds generated through coupon sales or cash donations are black, white, purple or red?
The five Assembly elections, with close to 600-plus seats, could cost the political parties anything between `3,000 crores and `4,000 crores. If one were to examine the books of accounts of all the political parties — the Left parties are an exception — one can draw one’s own conclusions. A single Assembly seat costs a crore in electoral expenses for a political party. In Punjab this escalates to `2-3 crores. No political party will be short of funds! Every party leader is aware of this and less than one per cent of our MPs and MLAs will have the personal resources to fund their election.
The issue is further complicated by a handful of individuals who act beyond the line of duty and electoral needs and accumulate assets. They tend to hold the political leadership to ransom, as we have seen in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Goa and Jharkhand. Transparency in party funds, in my opinion, will enable the vast majority of political leaders not to succumb to vested interests in the discharge of their duties.

The writer is a former Union minister