Despite his entertainment factor, especially for urban, English-speaking viewers who at one time could not get enough of his accent and style of speaking, Lalu Prasad Yadav has been absent from our television channels for some time. News-breaking warriors only chase those who are in the news and Lalu, with his meagre presence in Parliament and also in the Bihar Assembly, was not a TRP-booster any more. The days when he had made a run-down railway ministry into a roaring, profit-making machine also were long forgotten. He was yesterday’s man.
But suddenly last week, Lalu was back on our screens, holding forth in his inimitable style. Having won a crucial byelection in Maharajganj in Bihar by a handsome margin of 1.37 lakh votes, Lalu was gung-ho, predicting the beginning of the end of his bitter rival, Nitish Kumar.
Though the results in no way affect the Janata Dal (United)/Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) coalition government in Bihar, there is little doubt that the outcome must have rattled Mr Kumar. To add to his discomfiture, his ally, the BJP, taunted him for his loss. Relations between the two have been uncomfortable in the last few months primarily because Mr Kumar has made it clear that he will not accept Narendra Modi as the National Democratic Alliance’s candidate for the Prime Minister’s post should the combine win in the next Lok Sabha election. The Modi fan club in the BJP has been chafing at this and in the current mood of triumphalism among that group, anyone who opposes their hero is the enemy. Lalu’s victory puts additional pressure on Mr Kumar who would have immediately realised that this is a signal from voters that the JD(U) should not take their support for granted. His main worry is the minority vote — a hefty 15 per cent — which could topple him in the next election. No wonder he is hitting out at Mr Modi at every opportunity he gets.
Does winning one by-election in the final months of the Lok Sabha make much difference to a party’s fortunes? Especially since the party — the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) — still continues with its meagre four MPs in Parliament. Nor is the RJD a major force in the Bihar Assembly. So why is Lalu so thrilled?
In the current fluid pre-election scenario, when the two big parties — the Congress and the BJP — are worried and looking for reliable allies and the regional organisations are once again dreaming of Third Front possibilities, Lalu Prasad Yadav is interestingly poised to become a significant player in the coming months. Not only for his own party, his newly found confidence — which he hopes to translate into seats — will be crucial for the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) too.
Lalu has been a valuable friend of the Congress and the UPA. Though he is formally out of the government, he has stuck by the Congress through thick and thin. Among the Other Backward Caste leaders such as Mulayam Singh Yadav and Nitish Kumar, Lalu alone has resolutely been anti-BJP and anti-communalism. For all his love for the minorities, Mulayam Singh Yadav has not been above flirting with the BJP types when the situation demanded — he had once admitted Kalyan Singh into his party and parted ways only when it became clear that it had upset the Muslims of Uttar Pradesh. Nitish Kumar wants to run with the hares and hunt with the hounds — he runs a full-fledged government with the BJP, kept silent as the railway minister when the train-burning incident in Godhra happened, but now finds Mr Modi distasteful. That kind of hypocrisy cannot last. Lalu, on the other hand, has continued to attack the BJP and at the same time stand by the Congress. Many other regional parties — the Trinamul Congress is an example (and for that matter the JD(U) too, should circumstances change) — could go either way.
In the coming elections, if Lalu manages to up the tally of seats in Parliament from a lowly four, he will add valuable numbers to the UPA and take away from the BJP. The BJP is counting on Uttar Pradesh and Bihar — apart from Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh — to help reach a respectable total and, naturally, would want its allies also to do well. Attrition in Bihar for the BJP and Nitish Kumar could damage the NDA’s chances badly. Without Bihar, the BJP cannot hope to reach its desirable target of 180-odd seats. A weakened BJP even with 150-odd seats will not be able to attract fence-sitting regional parties to join the coalition. It is obvious that the BJP is not a united house and the uncivil war among its top leaders at such a crucial juncture will damage its electoral machine. If, with or without Mr Modi at the helm, it fails to deliver, it can say good-bye to any allies who may be interested in a tie-up.
Lalu will now work doubly hard because he sees a window of opportunity. Of all the old-timer regional chieftains, he has suffered the most in the last few years. Some, like Nitish Kumar, Mulayam Singh and Mamata Bannerjee are in power; others, like Chandrababu Naidu, have been consigned to oblivion. But Lalu, who tasted Central power as a minister with a significant portfolio, is neither here nor there. He is not completely irrelevant, but nor does he look like springing back to power in Bihar any time soon. Making a mark in the Lok Sabha election by increasing his seats significantly will put him on the high table. He has a lot to gain and a lot to lose. The latest victory will instill confidence in his party that it can perform much better in the next election.
So while the BJP is exulting over its victories in Gujarat and the humiliation of its friend in Bihar, it would do well to give Nitish Kumar all the support he needs so that the threat from Lalu can be warded off. Bihar is going to be a crucial battleground in the 2014 election. This is no time for allies to be fighting. Instead, they should be concentrating their firepower on the one man who could cause the biggest upset of them all — the redoubtable Lalu Prasad Yadav.

The writer can be contacted at sidharth01@gmail.com