Although nominations have not yet been filed, there are few reasons to believe that a serious contest will ensue for the upcoming election of the Rashtrapati when President Pratibha Patil demits office. Traditionally, a consensus between political parties has been created around an eminent Indian proposed by the ruling party or the principal party of the governing combine.

There have been notional or symbolic contests, of course. The last such was when Dr (Capt.) Lakshmi Sehgal — of the Indian National Army fame — was in the fray as the candidate of the Left, with not a ghost of a chance against Dr A.P.J. Abdul Kalam proposed by the ruling NDA in 2002. Indeed, the only genuine contest for President (between N. Sanjiva Reddy and V.V. Giri) was the consequence of turmoil within the ruling Congress Party in 1969 that would culminate in a party split.
To choose the 16th President of the republic, the principal Opposition party is unlikely to present a candidate of its own, appreciating full well that an emphatic defeat is all but certain. Although the Congress, the driver of the ruling UPA-2 combine, is in no position to sway the outcome (given its numbers in the two Houses of Parliament and the state Assemblies, it lacks decisive influence in the electoral college for the presidency), the BJP is worse off.
The saffron party faces a further problem. It is not inconceivable that some of its NDA allies may be tempted to even plump for the Congress nominee, especially if the ruling party were to pick a Muslim candidate who is not viewed as a “BJP Muslim” (as some perceived President Kalam). Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), for one, may look to re-secure its “secular” credentials among the minorities (since it partners the BJP) by backing a widely acceptable Muslim nominee. The Bihar party probably hopes such a move would serve it well in the next general election.
It was, therefore, not fortuitous that BJP leader Sushma Swaraj sought to dismiss vice-president Hamid Ansari — whose name is doing the rounds — as not being of sufficient “stature” to occupy Rashtrapati Bhavan. Ms Swaraj was obviously trying to head off the vice-president’s candidature in order to preserve NDA unity, but the remark was base and self-serving.
A distinguished Indian, Mr Ansari is a highly regarded Chairman of the Rajya Sabha with a long record of diplomatic service. He is also a man of learning, and one of balance. This is more than what can be said for a substantial segment of our political establishment who find themselves at the level of breaking stones when it comes to quality of endeavour in public life.
Given the shape of things, if the BJP were to declare its own candidate for President and seek to bring a sufficient number of non-Congress parties to accept its choice, the party would risk exposing its political vulnerabilities, not a sensible move since the next Lok Sabha election is only two years away and may well be advanced. The party would hardly want to do this after losing two successive national elections.
Nevertheless, making bold, it has hinted at its desire to endorse former President Kalam, should the latter find the idea palatable. But that is hardly likely to be the case since Dr Kalam cannot be assured of success, as he was in 2002, on the strength of the backing of a considerably depleted BJP.
Therefore, the BJP’s best bet might be to attach itself to a suitable nominee that may emerge from the stables of the regional parties. That indeed is the effort currently on view.
Not possessing core ideological features but being imbued with pragmatism to an extraordinary degree, India’s regional parties have long been treated merely as fellow-travellers of convenience. In the main, they are not cut out to be natural allies or strategic partners of any national political formation — the Congress, the BJP or the Left. Nor may they be inclined to accept one among them as the cabal leader — in fact, this is ruled out by the circumstances of their existence which underlines their regional or local character, and the absence of any kind of political glue of a lasting nature that may bind them.
In the event, it is an impossibility to expect the regional parties to throw up a single name as Rashtrapati Bhavan aspirant around whom a consensus may evolve. So, if the BJP is waiting for a name to emerge from the much-hyped regional bloc, this is simply not going to happen.
The BJP knows this. And yet, the party gives the public impression of being in consultation with regional players. This is a jejune device to conceal its own weakness. But there is another purpose as well. Since the party will naturally not support a nominee of the Congress for President, it will legitimately try to gather as many smaller parties as it can to oppose the candidate the Congress may project. The longer this list, the better for it in view of the next Lok Sabha election. If any UPA-2 constituents (say, Trinamul Congress), or a party oriented towards the coalition, swims away from the Congress’ choice, the BJP and its supporters will have more reason to celebrate.
The overall picture does indeed confer on the Congress a certain situational advantage, provided the party makes a choice that will have more takers than just its own MPs and MLAs. A hard-core Congress figure may, therefore, not do. Should the Congress insist on this, it may find the dynamics of game changing, and a non-Congress candidate (not necessarily a pro-BJP one) taking the
field.
That would mean an end to consensus-seeking or consensus-making. A genuine contest may then be unavoidable, breaking the traditional mould. That would be a pity. For a complex country like India, which has binding factors but multiple faultlines as well, not to say a polarised political spectrum, a President by consensus becomes a reaffirmation of national unity. And in the coalition era a consensus President may be the best neutral umpire we may hope for.