Try this experiment: Watch the speech Narendra Modi gave on September 17, the first day of his fast (it’s available on YouTube). Then switch off the sound and watch it on mute. (Mr Modi’s animated persona is more telling than the words he uses.) Chest puffed out, clear eyed, unsmiling and daring his opponents to come and take him on. Whatever he says is of secondary importance; his body language transmits arrogance and defiance. Yes, it seems to say, this is who I am, like it or not.

This impression is further heightened by the manner in which he meets the various religious leaders who are present to greet him — the sundry Hindu priests and preachers, some of them bowing from the waist, others beaming with pleasure; the Muslim maulvis, the Christian priests and even a Parsi or two, all there for the benediction of the emperor. This was the pre-coronation durbar, with the fawning masses (and a few well-chosen leaders) gathered to hail him while, ever so humbly, he sat there in abstinence, though not in penitence. Humility, like remorse, was conspicuous by its absence.
Those who had read the open letter, published prominently in the newspapers the same morning, may have detected a hint of regret: “Gujarat became a victim of communal violence. We lost innocent lives, suffered devastation of property and endured a lot of pain.” It was a bit ambivalent and hid behind generalities, and yet, could this be the first tentative steps towards an expression of remorse, perhaps even an apology? Would Mr Modi use the fast to preach harmony? Nothing of the sort happened.
Narendra Modi cannot but know that without some show of emotion and reaching out to the victims of that horrible pogrom in 2002, he will always have to carry that stain, which could hold him back in his small provincial arena for ever. That would be real leadership, if only for tactical reasons. Without such a step forward, he can forget his chances of stepping on the national stage. But he also knows that an apology would finish him in Gujarat; his die-hard supporters love him precisely because of his uncompromising attitude and rejection of those conventions and niceties. In short, Brand Modi, to pick up a tag so loved by headline writers, is what it is because he behaves the way he does. What use do his supporters have for the wimpy BJP-wallahs who have virtually started speaking the Congress’ language and wasting their time impressing the pseudo-secularists? In these circumstances, even if he wanted to, which he doesn’t, can Mr Modi apologise?
If that is so, then why the three-day tamasha in the first place? What was the purpose? Does he really think that the Supreme Court’s order of September 12 on Zakia Jafri’s petition has absolved him of all charges or that the report by a research group of the US Congress projecting a possible political battle in 2014 between him and Rahul Gandhi is all that significant? If he does, he is less shrewd than we think.
The ostensible purpose may have been to use the window of opportunity provided by these developments to reach out to the rest of the country, but in reality he was really letting his own party colleagues know that they should step aside. The three apparent challengers to his claim to be the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate — Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj and the perennial hopeful L.K. Advani — dutifully came and paid handsome tributes to him, but they know well that he will brush them aside in any competition. They are banking on Mr Modi being weighed down by his cases and his unacceptability to the rest of the NDA; let the allies do the dirty work of rejecting him, while they can happily hail him as the putative Caesar. The internal machinations of the BJP will now go into overdrive as each leader weighs the implications of Mr Modi’s bid to achieve a higher profile.
In the final analysis, what has Mr Modi achieved? Has he established a higher national profile, one that could reap electoral dividend? Hardly. He may have spoken in Hindi and may have been covered live by each and every television channel, but can he go to any state in the country and swing an election? Most chief ministers from his party and from among the allies baulked at the prospect of him campaigning in their states during the general and Assembly elections and there is no reason to think they have changed their mind. He has got the JD(U)’s back up even more, as was obvious from the manner in which the party’s spokesman dismissed the fast.
Mr Modi’s core constituency in Gujarat was always with him and perhaps will remain with him, but some of them may well be angry at his attempts to woo Muslims. Those are the people he cannot afford to annoy. As for the Muslims in the state, this display of fake bonhomie is not going to impress them. The liberals knew that Mr Modi wouldn’t ever change and the manner in which the protesters were picked up shows they were right. Even the small things matter, such as Mr Modi’s refusal to wear the skull cap offered to him by a maulana. In short, he is back exactly where he started and the grand exercise (which cost the tax-payer a lot of money) has not changed a thing for him. Indeed, all he has managed to do is get his enemies, within the party and among the allies, to start planning how to neutralise him. Ideally, Modi should have remained low-key rather than pump up the volume and start mouthing all kinds of pious intentions. But he chose to make a grand statement only to end up making a miscalculation. By trying to be something he is not and can never be — a humble, self-abnegating soul with a higher moral purpose — Mr Modi has squandered away the chance to move out of Gujarat.