The dramatic result of Sunday’s general election in Thailand, with the Pheu Thai Party of the self-exiled Thaksin Shinawatra, now led by his youngest sister Yingluck Shinawatra, winning decisively takes the country to a new fork that could lead to the beginning of a reconciliation or bigger divisions.

The truth is that Mr Thaksin changed the contours of Thai politics with his victories in 2001 and 2005 before being ousted in a coup in 2006.
Despite his billionaire status, Mr Thaksin empowered the rural poor and gave them real economic benefits in a political space traditionally defined by the elite consisting of those around the King’s court, the generals, high-flying professionals and businessmen. An ailing monarch, King Bhumibol, the invariable mediator in disputes, largely remained offstage. The elite responded with a coup, but the arrangement led by the Democrat Party’s Abhisit Vejjajiva was very much of a holding operation while Mr Thaksin, convicted of a corruption charge he calls politically motivated, chose to live abroad to avoid a prison term.
In the hour of his triumph, Mr Thaksin was both cautious and wise in his reaction from Dubai, his exile home, saying he was “in no hurry” to return home. Indeed, the question of his return has turned into a hot potato: “clemency” has become a charged word and the Opposition and the Army will view it as a red rag to a bull. The victorious Pheu Thai is therefore underplaying the theme for the moment.
The 44-year-old Yingluck Shinawatra, a successful businesswoman with no political experience, proved to be a brilliant campaigner, hitting the right notes, showing respect to the elderly and being civil to her opponents while imbibing the message of her experienced advisers. She will become the first woman Prime Minister of Thailand.
The challenge Ms Yingluck faces is herculean. Pheu Thai and the Opposition parties have been promising the same things: populist schemes to improve the lot of the poor and farmers, better health plans and more subsidies.
The question now is how well the new government implements proposed schemes and how the novice Prime Minister delivers on her promise of bringing about national reconciliation.
At the very least, it promises to be a long-term project because the faultlines in Thai society, reflected in its politics, run deep. Thailand’s tryst with democracy has been at best problematic, with the generals, even while receding to the background, retaining their power base.
It was barely a year ago that the Red Shirts, Thaksin loyalists, rioted in the streets of Bangkok, ultimately leading to the security forces clearing the streets after bloody battles resulted in the loss of 90 lives. The elite, of course, were represented by the Yellow Shirts, which had paralysed the main international airport for a time. The general who ousted Mr Thaksin in the 2006 coup has won two seats for his newly-formed party this time around.
Ms Yingluck is planning to form her government with smaller parties, and, given the nature of her dramatic victory and the magical aura the family name has acquired, she will probably have a grace period to show results. But she needs to act swiftly before the Opposition has an opportunity to strike, once the spectacular nature of her victory fades. There are enough reasons for her opponents to feel disgruntled, especially the threat of losing their traditional privileges. The wheel has turned full circle five years after the last coup.
Against the background of the power the elite have traditionally enjoyed, with or without direct Army rule, under the wings of a highly respected King Bhumibol, the process of democratising Thai society begun by Mr Thaksin in 2001 is likely to prove a long one. Indeed, Mr Thaksin invited trouble by seeking changes in the Army command.
The advantages the privileged have built through the royal court, the Army and big businesses have frustrated popular efforts to democratise society in the past. Because of the King’s failing health for a considerable time, he has been unable to play the balancing role of a reconciler.
Ms Yingluck will need all the advice from her self-exiled brother and his experienced aides still in the country to steer a difficult path to gain political recognition. This is both a promising and a risky phase in Thai politics: the democratisation process must succeed for the future of the country, but there are too many vested interests upholding the old order to make the journey a simple or happy one.
The Army-civilian divide is only part of Thailand’s problem. The bigger issue is the deep divide in the society, with the underprivileged unwilling to accept their lowly status and an elite enjoying their traditional privileges embroidered around a respected monarchy. Mr Thaksin’s pioneering contribution to the rise of the underprivileged has been to give them the kind of advantages they never had before. For the first time in recent Thai history, they feel empowered.
The problem for Ms Yingluck is how to give the awoken rural constituency new hope without provoking the long-entrenched vested interests into organising another coup. Her theme song of reconciliation is good but it will take her only so far. The first months of her prime ministership will determine how she will meet the tremendous challenges before her. Her brother’s advice from Dubai is a sound one — “all sides should respect the decision of the people” — to ensure peace.
The rub is in getting the Opposition parties, smarting under defeat, to follow this advice. If Pheu Thai pushes its luck by seeking the early return of Mr Thaksin, a polarising figure, it would give the Democrat Party the excuse to take to the streets again.
Ms Yingluck wears a crown of thorns.