The wars in Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq reflect a common socio-political pattern — patchwork of ethno-religious tribal communities held in place by a hereditary central elite that’s progressively disintegrating under the impact of the Arab Spring.

Syria has been devastated for over two years by an internal war that now resembles an uncontrollable street-corner gang war for control of territory with bystanders watching at their own peril. West-backed rebel forces, grouped into the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, are fighting the Russia-backed ruling Alawite elite led by President Bashar al-Assad. Also involved are Shia groups linked to Hezbollah that are backed by Iran and assorted Christian and Kurdish militias on the fringes, whose objectives cannot quite be deciphered yet.
Ironically, a militant Sunni Al-Nusra Front linked with Al Qaeda also supports some rebel factions, theoretically placing Al Qaeda and the West on the same side. The rebels appear to be gradually gaining the upper hand, but through the drifting smoke it can be discerned that irrespective of the domestic issues involved, the Syrian conflict has been subsumed into the broader pattern of the new rivalry rising between Russia and the United States that’s reminiscent of the Cold War. Russia has decided that its best interests lie in upholding the Assad regime and is providing its latest weaponry to the government forces. China does not have a visible presence in the Syrian conflict, but would, no doubt, be closely tracking events and assessing its own responses for future contingencies.
Meanwhile, the chief sufferers in this mindless conflict continue to be the local people as the situation drags on and deteriorates into a fratricidal war of insensate savagery.
Syria has never been one of the “most favoured nations” of the West, so it is no surprise that international media is generally partisan and favours the United States and their regional associates. There are hyped-up reports in the Western media of alleged chemical warfare that are being exploited to demonise
Mr Assad on a pattern identical with that of President Saddam Hussein in Iraq earlier.
Also, as in Iraq, the aim of the Western bloc in Syria is regime change — to replace Mr Assad with someone more favourable towards the West. Would Mr Assad also meet with a fate similar to Saddam Hussein if he, too, is ultimately overthrown by the Syrian rebel forces? For now, the answer to that question is blowing in the wind.
The situation has been superheated by violation of Syrian airspace by Israeli aircraft around the Damascus region, reportedly to interdict road consignments of surface-to-surface missiles in transit to Lebanon, and intended for Hezbollah.
The US has always been averse to any type of interaction with the Assad regime in Syria, though Israel, considered a cantankerous and abrasive protégé, has its own interests in maintaining back-channel contacts with Syria — to maintain peace along its border with Syria.
The studied silence by the US regarding the recent Israeli airstrikes on the missile convoy and the stereotypical calls for peace from the United Nations indicate tacit approval of Israel’s action because, in the larger context, it is seen as a deterrent response against the larger threat of militant Islam spreading across the Levant and North Africa.
India, too, must take note of the rise of the hitherto unknown Al-Nusra Front of Sunni militancy. It has become a significant new factor in the Syrian conflict, forging another link in the chain that now connects fundamentalist conflict of West Asia with that in Indonesia, whose outcomes are as yet indeterminate, but unlikely to be beneficial to India.
India must take advance precautions for similar situations closer to home in Afghanistan, when the US troops depart in 2014. The recent multiple visits to India by President Hamid Karzai reflect these concerns, for which India must take a determined stand in its own interest.
India inhabits a dangerous neighbourhood, home to a variety of terrorist and extremist organisations seeking to acquire Doomsday weapons. It will thus be unwise to regard the Syrian situation as something of only distant interest, because it is an advance warning of the armed Islamist extremism in the region with the long-term potential to adversely impact this country as well.
Chemical weapons are terrorists’ ideal weapons of choice for mass casualty. The still unresolved twin blasts of Hyderabad this February provide very disturbing glimpses of the havoc that terrorists can cause, even with conventional commercial explosives. And if media reports about chemical weapons in Syria are even fractionally correct, it indicates a disturbing trend that may spread to other regions in the world, including India.
Terrorist fraternities are unremittingly pursuing their stated objectives of trying to obtain chemical and radiological weapons, including sophisticated military-grade nerve gasses like Tabun and Sarin. If these ever find their way to any of the radical groups proliferating in the subcontinent — the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba and Hizbul Mujahideen in the unstable AfPak region, the Hefazat-e-Islam in Bangladesh and non-religious but equally dangerous groups like the Naxalites or even the LTTE attempting to re-establish themselves in India — the consequences may be beyond imagination.
The situation in Lebanon in 2006 had compelled India to conduct a massive sea and airlift of approximately 2,000 Indian, Sri Lankan and Nepalese citizens out of nearby Beirut. Designated Operation Sukoon, it was carried by the Indian Navy and Air India and was widely praised by the international community. India is certainly hoping that history will not repeat itself in this respect at least. But the prospects are disturbing and India must remain actively engaged with the situation at all levels to prevent such an eventuality.

The writer is a former Chief of Army Staff and a former member of Parliament