The Lokpal issue continues to fester even in the new year. Since the proceedings in the upper House on December 29 have been seen live on TV across the country there is little need for argument for any side of the benches. There are few things which can be seen in black and white in politics, but 24x7 television can on occasion give a very different slant to a very complex issue.

The episode left little doubt in one’s mind as to how badly our parliamentarians handled the issue in the House. The UPA did the right thing, as 187 amendments cannot be dealt with in a few hours but the whole thing ended in a wrong manner. The UPA’s political management has been lacking on the Anna Hazare issue since April 2011.
The UPA has made a mess of coalition governance, where survival at any cost has resulted in multiple scams. I wonder if we are heading for a similar situation in the Uttar Pradesh elections. Every party — be it the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Congress or the BJP — will claim to get a majority. In the political gymnastics that will unfold in Uttar Pradesh we may well witness the biggest auction in our political system, foreshadowing the shape of things to come in 2014. Everyone in Uttar Pradesh is a master politician and everyone can make their electoral arithmetic work. I am aware of the plans many have for the future. In the last elections the BSP got a majority. Will the SP get it this time?
Clearly the BSP is on the defensive and chief minister Mayawati sacking 19 ministers at this stage means very little. But then the benefit of her action against her ministers seems to be going to the SP. Let us not forget that both Mulayam Singh Yadav and son Akhilesh are drawing good crowds in the campaign. The BJP’s prospects can be best explained by its induction of Babu Singh Kushwaha who was sacked by Ms Mayawati and raided by the CBI. The BJP, if it continues like this, can lag behind even the Independents!
The Congress is also doing well with Rahul Gandhi leading the charge. After a brilliant performance in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections the Congress is in the race and the important thing is that, despite heavy odds and many a political distraction, the Congress general secretary is putting in his best effort. If there are going to be any major surprises, then it could be the SP getting more than 150 seats and the Congress bagging more than 90 seats.
The attention, as I see, must be on the interim period between 2012 and 2014. The Congress, the BSP and the SP may get in excess of 20 seats each in the Lok Sabha and one of them may get in excess of 30 seats. The UPA must get the stability required for governance and we cannot have the same situation as was between 2009 and 2011. The UPA, the BSP and the SP have used one another and a flexible approach on certain issues may no longer be possible. The CBI is under attack, 24x7 television covers events by the minute and the Supreme Court and the high court have little option but to intervene as we have seen in the 2G spectrum scam and almost all political cases will go to the higher courts.
The Trinamul Congress is getting more belligerent by the day and this I suppose is necessary to protect its base vote from the Left. The Trinamul Congress has options for the moment but the charisma of a party leader alone is not enough to sustain an extended political honeymoon. If the current strains in the Congress-Trinamul alliance continue, the Congress will also explore options. But it’s difficult to understand why the two allies cannot sit together and resolve the issues between them. The Congress is in no position to refuse anything to the Trinamul Congress and an extra insurance of 20 MPs from the SP or the BSP is the elbowroom the Congress needs rather badly in the interim period.
We have more talent today than we have had in earlier years but it is a sad reflection on both the Congress and the BJP that they have not used the talent available to fill the leadership slots for the future. The problem with regional parties is even more acute and the departure of the leader could mean the demise of the party, as multiple splits will set in. Does anyone know of a second in command in the AIADMK under J. Jayalalithaa, the BJD under Naveen Patnaik or the Trinamul Congress under Mamata Banerjee? We can go from one regional force to another and the picture, if we look into the future, is one of relative instability. No charismatic leader allows a second power centre except the family and here again, as we see in the DMK, succession battles are built into the familial system if the supreme leader is incapacitated.
We may have a great deal of entertainment if Team Anna joins the election campaign and Baba Ramdev tours Uttar Pradesh in his Rolls Royce. The elections in Punjab will be interesting, as both the Congress and the Akali Dal are well matched and have credible leaders in Amarinder Singh and the father and son duo of Parkash Singh and Sukhbir Singh Badal. Every seat is critical and will be bitterly fought in the state. I see the Congress in the front. Much, though, will depend on ticket distribution. Multiple power centres in the Congress in Punjab will have to be balanced. This is the job of the high command. The Congress should win Uttarakhand easily along with Manipur.

The writer is a former Union minister