New Delhi, March 9: After outsmarting its opponents and some allies on the landmark Women’s Reservation Bill, Congress crisis managers have begun working on the passage of the Budget and foiling the Opposition’s move to defeat the Manmohan Singh government either by moving cut motions or a no-confidence motion in the coming days.

The government is expected to introduce this bill in the Lok Sabha after the break in the Budget Session, either by the end of April or by the first week of May, sources indicated.
The Congress’ team of crisis managers, comprising Mr Pranab Mukherjee, Mr A.K. Antony and Mr Ahmed Patel besides Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and party chief Sonia Gandhi, met on Tuesday afternoon in the PM’s Office when the two Houses of Parliament were adjourned on the Women’s Reservation Bill.
It took place while Trinamul Congress chief Mamata Banerjee, Samajwadi Party president Mulayam Singh Yadav, RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav, Janata Dal (U) leader Sharad Yadav and former Union minister Digvijay Singh met to review the changed situation.
New permutations and combinations have become visible. While Ms Banerjee has moved closer to the Mandalite parties on the issue of reservation for minorities in this bill, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar has taken the Congress’ line on the bill, diluting his own stand on it. Ms Banerjee’s  distancing from the Congress could create space for the Left to re-ally with the Sonia Gandhi-led party. But in that situation the Telugu Desam Party and the Biju Janata Dal may not remain with the Marxists because the Congress has been their main rival in Andhra Pradesh and Orissa.
“The 20-member JD(U) in the Lok Sabha with become the JD-D (Divided),” predicted a Mandalite leader, because Mr Sharad Yadav will not toe the line of Mr Nitish Kumar, who is unsure of returning to power in Bihar merely on his performance. Assembly elections are coming up in Bihar. One should not be surprised if the Congress-led UPA and the BJP-led NDA split in the coming months, the Mandalite leader felt.
While Ms Banerjee’s minority plank may create problems for the Left and the Congress in the coming West Bengal Assembly polls, the OBC card of the SP and the RJD could put the Congress on the defensive while the BSP will sharpen its attack on the Congress on the dalit issue.
Ms Banerjee was “kept in the dark” about the Congress’ move to take up the bill for consideration and passage in the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday. She was given the impression that Dr Singh would call a meeting of floor leaders on a issue of quota for OBCs and minorities in the 33 per cent reservation for women in the Lok Sabha and state Assemblies. But she was taken aback by the developments which gained momentum after 3 pm Tuesday.
Mrs Gandhi made it clear how enthusiastic Ms Banerjee had been about the bill when it was cleared by the Cabinet. Ms Banerjee felt the situation had changed after the Sachar Committee report and Srikrishna Commission report on the minorities. Therefore, the bill will have to be changed in the light of this, she felt. She also wanted Congress managers to bring the SP and RJD on board. After all, they are supporting parties, Trinamul sources said.
The Trinamul Congress, NCP and some Independent Lok Sabha members did not approve the government’s strategy to seek the help of marshals in the Rajya Sabha against MPs agitating for modifications in the bill.
In the current Lok Sabha, the Congress (208), NCP (nine), DMK (nine) and National Conference (three) are intact because the Congress is also sharing power with them in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Jammu and Kashmir.
While the DMK and AIADMK (nine) cannot work under the Congress umbrella in Tamil Nadu, the BSP (21) cannot play second fiddle to the Congress in UP and outside as also the BJD (14) and the TDP (six).
The Shiv Sena has 11, the RLD five and as for the JD(S), the three are unpredictable if one goes by their political history.
Congress managers are pegging their hopes on 13 one-member parties, nine Independents, two of the TRS and two of the Muslim League Kerala State Committee. The Shiromani Akali Dal (four) and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (two) will remain with the BJP in the NDA because of political compulsions in Punjab and Jharkhand. And the RSP (two) and Forward Bloc will remain with the Marxists in the Left Front.

Venkatesh Kesari