Union home minister P. Chidambaram, defence minister A.K. Antony and Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor have warned about the possibility of a repeat of 26/11, when the attack by highly trained Pakistani terrorists rocked Mumbai, shocked India and shook New Delhi.

Then comes an input from the FBI’s interrogation of David Coleman Headley and Pakistani Canadian Tahawwur Hussain Rana that the prestigious National Defence College in New Delhi, Doon School, Dehra Dun, and Woodstock, Mussoorie, both high-profile boarding schools in Uttarakhand, are on the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba’s target list. America and Israel have already issued advisories on travel to India.

The Pakistan Navy (PN) is out on a six-week-long maritime exercise "Seaspark 2009" in the North Arabian Sea since October 12, 2009. Comprising Pakistan Marines, Special Services Group, ships, submarines and aircraft to "assess the operational readiness of Pakistan Navy", which includes "activation of forward operating bases, dispersal sites and command and control centres", PN is ideally poised to give logistic support once again to any jihadi attack from sea anywhere on India’s western coastline.

Whereas the home minister’s recent terse statement in Madurai, Tamil Nadu, "If terrorists and militants from Pakistan try to carry out any attack in India, they will not only be defeated but will also be retaliated very strongly," is indeed significant, one sincerely hopes it will be proved true, if God forbid, such an attack is launched.

The latest rabbit out of one of Pakistan’s many hats, after a series of lies, deception and no meaningful action on 26/11, is to blame India for the deadly attacks by its own home-grown vermin who have proved their capability to successfully target Pakistan Army’s so far considered invulnerable bastions. And with this allegation against India coming from Pakistan’s civil government leaders, an absolute wonder is its Army spokesperson Major-General Athar Abbas stating that "there is no proof of Indian involvement in Balochistan and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata)".

Having messed up the operation in Swat against the Taliban, many of whom escaped the shrapnel of air and artillery strikes and are living to fight on many other days and places, the Pakistan Army moved into Waziristan. Here is an interesting Pakistani blog: "The ongoing long but unsuccessful military operation against the militants in Swat is leading many here to explore whether the Army is unable or unwilling in combating them. Being highly organised, well-equipped, better trained and rich in resources, the Army’s inability seems least plausible. So the common perception, rapidly evolving, is that the Army is unwilling in dealing with the militants and all this operation is just a game being played, many believe, for some other objectives. Such sort of situation is greatly alarming as, on the one hand, it is harming the credibility of the Army, while on the other it is causing bitter resentment among the local people who, in turn, have started suspecting Swat and its people being used as scapegoat by the power centre. This state of affairs ask for the immediate attention of those decision and policymakers who sincerely believe in the interests and integrity of the country. Likewise the intellectual and writers need to play their role by probing into the Swat situation in the light of actual situation instead of basing their analysis merely on imagination."

The Pakistan Army has deployed about 30,000 troops for its offensive in South Waziristan against 11,500 militants. The urgent measure of cancellation of leave for the Pakistan Army and Rangers comes in the wake of a series of recent suicide blasts in various cities of Pakistan in which over 300 people were killed and several hundred seriously injured. No Pakistani city, including Lahore, Rawalpindi and Peshawar, being left untouched by the deadly spell of killings which began well before the Pakistan Army moved into South Waziristan only gives further credence to the failed Swat operation resulting in many Taliban escaping.

Yet another interesting development is Pakistan Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani’s appeal to the Mehsud tribe linked to the Taliban to support an offensive against the insurgents/terrorists, aimed at further isolating them. This operation against the Pakistani Taliban in South Waziristan is considered its most critical fight against Islamist extremists threatening its stability and its strategy involves convincing other warlords and tribes in the region to stand aside during the fight even if they are involved in anti-US activities in Afghanistan. Gen. Kayani’s letter — dropped as leaflets from the air in South Waziristan — was addressed to the Mehsuds, describing them as "courageous, loyal Pakistanis" and urging them to "rise collectively" against militants in their midst. The version of the letter posted on the Army’s website says: "The ongoing operation by the Pakistani Army is not aimed at the patriotic Mehsud tribes. Instead the target is for the good riddance of the Mehsud tribes from the cruel clutches of terrorist elements who have ruined the law and order and peace of this area."

The Taliban have killed hundreds of tribal elders throughout the Afghan border region to undermine the age-old administrative system there and solidify control. Loyalties run deep among tribesmen and codes of honour prevent them from informing on each other, even if one is suspected of anti-government activity. Pakistan Army’s operation in South Waziristan, again mainly by air and artillery, has by now caused over 2,00,000 civilians to flee from the region. The Pakistan Army’s only minor success so far is the capture of Kotkai, the hometown of Pakistani Taliban chief Hakimullah Mehsud.

The Pakistan Army has also struck deals to keep two powerful, anti-US tribal chiefs from joining the battle. Under the terms agreed to, Maulvi Nazir and Hafiz Gul Bahadur will stay out of the current fight in parts of South Waziristan controlled by the Pakistani Taliban. They will also allow the Pakistan Army to move through their own lands unimpeded, giving the military additional fronts from which to attack the Taliban. In exchange, the Army will ease patrols and bombings in areas of North and South Waziristan controlled by Nazir and Bahadur. Pakistan Army’s three previous offensives in South Waziristan since 2004 have been unsuccessful.

With all that is happening in Pakistan, the Pakistan Army still has enough time and resources for anti-India operations. India must make that unaffordable.

Anil Bhat, a retired Army officer, is a defence and security analyst based in New Delhi

Anil Bhat