If nothing else, the Indian Left is generally consistent on its outlook when it comes to broad questions of policy. This makes it go with political tactics that are uniformly applied in different states of the country. On the eve of Assembly elections in West Bengal and Kerala, however, the CPI(M) — for some time the Left’s most influential party in electoral politics, and the leader of the pack — is befuddling its adherents by adopting divergent stances. The party has declared that the bid to retain power in Kolkata will be mounted under the leadership of chief minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee.

But it’s a different story in Kerala, where chief minister V.S. Achuthanandan does not yet know if he will even get the party’s approval to contest the election, now just four weeks away. Since the CPI(M) leads a front in Kerala (as in West Bengal), the fate assigned to the chief minister could possibly impact its ties with front partners. If the leader of the electoral contest that lies ahead is to be someone other than Mr Achuthanandan, the CPI(M)’s partners could well step up their price and confusion — even possible disarray — can reign on election eve. This is mainly on account of the fact that the octogenarian chief minister is thought of well outside his own party, has a sturdy reputation for fighting corruption (an image he has assiduously cultivated), and is seen by Ezhavas — the state’s most numerous caste group — as being their chief representative in high political circles. It is therefore possible that going into the poll battle under another leader could be seen as risky.
Traditional wisdom suggests that Kerala would go with the Congress-led United Democratic Front this time round since the right to rule alternates between the UDF and the Marxist-led Left Democratic Front every five years. So it should not matter who leads the LDF in the state. But if incumbents take a merciless beating, not just a moderate one, the Left story in the country as a whole is likely to be impacted as the CPI(M) looks headed for a drubbing in West Bengal as well, ending its undefeated run of over three decades. The simultaneous loss of both frontline states will be a new kind of agony. Such a denouement contains the potential to throw any party off-balance. Difficult questions can be raised that can hurt the CPI(M)’s leadership at the Centre and in the states, troubling ideological issues can surface, the correctness of the political line can be up for debate, and largescale defections of followers can become the order of the day. If the Marxists take a major hit, it is hard to see how its CPI(M)’s partners can escape unscathed.
The CPI(M)’s national leadership might have been better off if it had taken a coordinated view of its pre-election preparations in Kolkata and in Thiruvananthapuram as it girds its loins to enter the fray. The cadres need a different mantra on this occasion, for it is not business as usual. It is not sufficient to deride Opposition parties and candidates, as is usually the case at election time. It may not be far off the mark to suggest that the Left is embarking on nothing less than a battle of conjunctures. The CPI(M), in particular, is badly divided in Kerala along factional lines that mimic those of “bourgeois” parties — the divisions are on personal and group fights for power and unrelated to key issues of politics and ideology. In West Bengal, the party finds itself alienated from the masses and the strain is being felt on its organisational structures. Visionary thinking is needed at its leadership level.