Delhi has to watch US-Taliban moves
An American news report, with inputs from Kabul-based former officials of the erstwhile Taliban government, suggests that the United States government has begun preliminary talks with Taliban representatives in Doha, Qatar. That is no surprise. Washington has worked hard for over a year to get the Taliban to engage in talks with the current Afghan leadership so that the departure of American and Nato troops from Afghanistan doesn’t once more leave the door open for a return of an extremist regime in Kabul. The US has thus helped with the setting up of a Taliban political office in Qatar. Earlier this month, Marc Grossman, Washington’s special envoy for the AfPak region, swung by New Delhi. He was also in Kabul and Qatar. In Doha he is thought to have talked to the Taliban representatives. The reports on this are sketchy and speculative. It is not clear if the senior US official visited the Indian capital after his interface with the Taliban delegates. More to the point, even if it was prior to that engagement, did the US keep India informed about the lie of the land?
The issue is important as Afghanistan has been at the top of this country’s foreign policy agenda for the past few years. It intends to “stay the course” in Kabul even after the US and Nato troops depart in 2014. The reason is that India does not want a Kabul in the grip of the influence of terrorists all over again, and is prepared to go to some lengths to pursue this goal. It signed a strategic agreement with the Afghan government last year that drew international attention, surprising many in the region, and drawing negative vibes from Pakistan. India is not a part of the broad American scheme for Afghanistan. But New Delhi and Washington have a broad area of common understanding which is of a nature that justifies the expectation of the US keeping India posted of its political moves in the region.
Even with Washington’s opening gambit vis-à-vis the Taliban fructifying, the picture in respect of the political future of Afghanistan is one of considerable uncertainty. The Afghans themselves have many questions about the Qatar process. They have been kept out of the present contacts between the US and the Taliban, doubtless made possible with Pakistan’s help. However, they would have to lead the talks sooner or later. It is not clear if India has an identifiable position in a situation which is extremely fluid, and whose dynamics are linked to the future of Indian policy toward Kabul, which will also impact the broad contours of its regional perspectives.
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