The arrest of erstwhile communications minister A. Raja is, in the end, a technicality. It will be instructive to see how quickly the CBI can proceed even when the case is being monitored by the Supreme Court. Much would depend on the availability, and collation, of quality evidence against the DMK politician who continues to protest his innocence and maintain that all he did was follow the previous NDA government’s policy on spectrum allocation. The political fallout of the affair is naturally important — for both the DMK and the Congress, especially since Assembly elections are due in five states (including Tamil Nadu) in three months and in Uttar Pradesh not long after. In a wider sense, however, there could be a sense of relief in the country if such a high-profile case could be brought to a speedy conclusion. If this does not happen, and the idea gains ground that powerful people — in politics, government and business interests associated with telecom licences — are going to drag out the matter, the morale of ordinary citizens is likely to be negatively impacted. A good deal devolves on the supervision of the case by the Supreme Court.
There was never any doubt that someone charged with “criminal conspiracy” would be pulled in at some stage of the investigation preceding trial. The arrest of Mr Raja and two of his officials — including former telecom secretary Siddhartha Behuria — who are under investigation is bound to appear dramatic, given the sheer scale of misappropriation that came to be talked about since the report of the comptroller and auditor-general cast doubts on the method adopted for the award of 2G spectrum licences. Also, the pushing out and then the arrest of a Cabinet minister is not a daily occurrence. Politically, it can work both ways. People may be disturbed at the thought of such a person being kept in high office for so long. Another view is that the system did, after all, act decisively in the end. The minister was made to resign before the CAG report was tabled in Parliament. The CBI inquiry had indeed begun earlier although it gained purposefulness after the Supreme Court entered the picture. These considerations are likely to come into play on account of the clutch of elections around the corner. However, it would be premature to condemn Mr Raja and his associates even before charges have been framed and the trial begun. There appears to be some popular interest on the question of Mr Raja and his associates securing bail. That is a purely legal matter and should be decided in the light of the charges framed.
It is not yet clear if the 2G spectrum case investigations and the trial that follows will produce material that might incriminate other public figures. If top DMK leaders come into the ambit of suspicion, the impact of this on Congress-DMK relations is hardly likely to be salutary. Just two days ago the two parties announced that their alliance would continue. The parties seemed confident going public about this as the decision flowed from a meeting in New Delhi between Congress president Sonia Gandhi and DMK supremo M. Karunanidhi. But if the progress of investigations throws a spanner in the works, the UPA-2 government could well face a political crisis it had not bargained for. With the Opposition’s demand for a JPC probe into the 2G affair boosted following Mr Raja’s arrest, it is hard to see how the crucial Budget Session of Parliament — to begin later this month — can proceed smoothly. This can only feed into any crisis that might ensue if more high-fliers from the DMK stable come under the needle of suspicion in the 2G affair.