The sheer scale and range of understanding reached between India and Russia during the recent visit of President Dmitry Medvedev calls to mind the days of the Indo-Soviet Treaty struck in the Indira-Brezhnev era nearly 40 years ago.
The agreements signed take in the strategic sectors of defence and nuclear cooperation, new forays into space technology, expanded ties in the hydrocarbons sector, and the refurbishing of trade ties to reach a two-way commercial transactions regime worth $20 billion, which is intended to mark a doubling of the depleted state of India-Russia trade noticed in Moscow’s post-Communist era. The diversity of expansion in the bilateral relationship being attempted can hardly be conceived in the absence of the two countries being on the same page politically. In the last decade and a half, the once robust relationship between the two strategic partners had been emasculated. Russia had become a lesser power, and for a time looked Westward. India, too, was changing in myriad ways and securing ties of a new type with democracies of the West, led by the US. Although India has found a higher platform in its relationship with the Western powers in recent years, it is clear that India and Russia have sensibly determined that enhancing their relationship to a qualitatively higher level serves their mutual interest.
What’s more, this doesn’t adversely affect the dynamics of equations with other major powers. It also comes without the geo-political complexities that are often seen to deflect the momentum in India’s ties with the US. In our region, with Washington constantly seeking to balance its relationship with this country with its close ties with Islamabad, and also Beijing, Indian public opinion is seen to be cautious in doing business with the US, although there is no dearth of goodwill here for America. This is an acknowledgement of the reality that America has too many irons in the fire, too many interests to consider in every region, and too many issues with international ramifications to think about as it seeks to safeguard its diminishing power in the world. With Russia, our relationship is not attended by caveats in the same manner. The issues are far more clear-cut. The perceived mutuality of benefit is seldom in doubt. It is for this reason that during Mr Medvedev’s visit, Russia had little difficulty calling a spade a spade in the context of terrorism and Pakistan. Moscow also had no hesitation in enthusiastically endorsing India’s case to be a permanent UN Security Council member, and of international regimes and closed clubs that have a bearing on international transactions in strategic materials. It is no wonder that at his joint press conference with the visiting dignitary, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh described Russia as “a time-tested friend” and spoke of the India-Russia compact as a “special and privileged strategic partnership”.
Only fairly recently, many on both sides had begun to wonder if Russia had not begun to look more inward, and to concentrate on the dynamics of its ties within Europe, in the process downgrading its traditional terms with India and extending the hiatus in once flourishing ties. Such an assessment now appears to have been premature. Within our region, India and Russia appear now to be strategising in respect of the situation in Afghanistan, which appears crucial to Indian policy-making in the foreseeable future. This is a huge stepping-up, and Moscow is clearly shaking off its diffidence vis-à-vis Afghanistan, which has a regional and an international dimension. In the context of the post-US Kabul, now under discussion, this is a meaningful turn that is likely to be watched.