There appear to be no outright winners in Assam’s two-phase election on April 4 and 11, although it is a state that is meant to underpin the stability of the country’s north-eastern region where insurgencies have been endemic and migration into India through porous borders has been a troubling issue for decades. In the saddle for two

consecutive terms, the ruling Congress Party is up against a double anti-incumbency. Ministers in the Tarun Gogoi government face serious charges of corruption. The allegation of malafide in the distribution of tickets is also being hurled at the party leadership by Congress cadres themselves, though this could be a touch exaggerated. All that the party has done is to re-nominate its sitting MLAs, although this can hardly be said to be a tested strategy, especially in an anti-incumbency situation. The Congress’ opponents — the Asom Gana Parishad, the BJP and the All-India United Democratic Front (AIAUDF) of Badruddin Ajmal — appear reasonably well set in their areas of influence and, in indirect ways are seeking to be of assistance to one another in the poll battle. Nevertheless, none of them appears to have a constituency large enough to see it through. For them, to come to power by bonding openly with one another can be also be politically tricky. Can the BJP and AIAUDF cohere ideologically, for instance?
While corruption is a significant item in the campaign against the Gogoi government, there appears to be an absence of an overwhelming poll issue in the state of the kind available in the other states where Assembly elections are being held. It is to be seen if the ruling party can prise a position of advantage for itself out of such a situation. Its seats had fallen quite sharply in 2006, but it had been able to put together a majority in collaboration with the Bodo Front which picked up 10 seats in the House. The BPF is partnering the Congress this time around as well, but it is far from certain the latter can retain the 54 it bagged in 2006. In the event it cannot, the present Opposition parties can sustain their coalition ambitions if Congress numbers are seriously down. But a twilight zone cannot be ruled out. That could test deal-making abilities on both sides of the divide. In that event political stability in a sensitive part of the country is likely to be prejudiced.
Assam’s fractured polity is of relatively recent origin. In earlier times, the “Ali-Kuli-Bengali” matrix — i.e. Muslims, tea garden labour from the erstwhile tribal belt of Bihar (now Jharkhand), and Hindu Bengali migrants from the erstwhile East Pakistan — worked in favour of the Congress. All the three constituencies have lately shown a tendency to go in different directions — typically, away from the Congress. But no counter-weight to the Congress, whose political articulation might cut across a range of constituencies, has evolved either. The AGP has not quite emerged as the state’s regional party to which all comers must defer. Its years in office did not exactly add lustre to the party although it had emerged from a pervasive protest movement in the state. Fortunately for the AGP, this time around it does not appear to be a house divided on the eve of election. The persistence of ethnic divisions, and the inability of governance across time to address the core economic concerns of the different communities, have led to a situation where intra-community political conflict is always round the corner, and lends a sharp edge to political and electoral competition. The Ulfa insurgents might have created havoc in such a situation. Fortunately, the initiating of talks with them by the government, and many of them seeking now to become a part of the general milieu once again, has probably reduced the likelihood of militants disrupting the poll process.