The rain god Indra, who is also the god of storms and war, has so far smiled on South India but is yet to bestow his largesse on the rest of the country. The India Metrological Department claims that the rainfall is 18 per cent below normal in northwest India, 26 per cent below normal in central India and 17 per cent below normal in east and northeast India, while in the south it is five per cent above normal. But all is not yet lost, though there is considerable and growing concern over the monsoon’s late arrival across the country. The IMD claims that it will be in full swing all over India by July 15, and also forecasts that the June-September rainfall will be 102 per cent of the long period average — up from its earlier forecast of 98 per cent. If this actually turns out to be true, India will have a normal monsoon this year. But the worry is also that the rainfall, even if “normal”, could be unevenly spread — this could have an impact on agriculture as different crops are grown in different parts of the country. Rice, for instance, is grown mainly in Uttar Pradesh, soyabean in Madhya Pradesh, groundnut in Rajasthan and Gujarat, and so on. Bihar and UP also contribute 16 per cent of India’s total agricultural output — and the bulk of foodgrain production comes from crops sown between July and September.
Strange as it may sound, India’s $1.3 trillion economy depends considerably on the strength of the monsoon. Agriculture accounts for 17-18 per cent of our GDP. Successive governments, with their criminal neglect of irrigation over the years, have made the country hostage to the rain god — even today just about 20.3 per cent of the total irrigable land is actually irrigated. It is hard to run a modern economy without a modern infrastructure.
The country is glued as never before to news about the monsoon. With the growing spread of communications, people are much more aware of how the economy — and their lives — can get derailed due to the lack of rain. There is also rising awareness of the link between the absence of adequate rainfall and food inflation. Last year, due to an erratic monsoon, India had to import food and then deal with imported inflation. When the news spreads globally that India, one of the largest producers of rice and wheat, is short of foodgrain and edible oils, international prices of wheat and rice shoot up. This is what happened last year. India is totally dependent on imports for edible oils. The effect of this is there for everyone to see. Since November, food inflation has hovered between 17 and 20 per cent. The consequences of a failed monsoon can be catastrophic: 75 per cent of this country remains dependent on agriculture and allied activities, and if there is a crop failure, the hardest hit will be the small and marginal farmers, whose income depends on their produce, and farm labourers, who will become jobless. Industry, particularly the fast-moving consumer goods sector, will also receive a setback as much of its profits depend on rural demand. The power sector, primarily hydropower, will go for a toss as 26 per cent of generating capacity is hydro-based. In 2008-09, according to one report, India Inc lost Rs 43,205 crores due to power outages.
Of course, if we have a good monsoon all over India, it will give a fillip to both agriculture and industry and boost GDP growth. At this point, though, one can only pray that the rain god sends his “Indra dhanush” to cover the entire country.