I have written this article on return from a lecture tour to Muscat, the capital of the oil and gas exporting sultanate of Oman. Though my hosts, the Royal Navy of Oman, were basically interested in the impact of “regional geopolitics on naval strategy,” questions were also asked about Japan’s March 11, 2011, civil nuclear power plants disaster, involving four plants. By March 13, when news channels were still analysing Japan’s nuclear emergency and hoping that the efficient Japanese would “contain the situation,” I explained to my host audience that this was a major nuclear disaster, though I am deeply saddened at being subsequently proved correct. The basic reason for the nuclear disaster was the delay in utilising seawater cooling (which would have made the reactor “unuasble” permanently, due to corrosion), after the main and standby cooling systems had failed.
I have visited Japan and have been very impressed with its tsunami warning system (which gives a warning within three minutes of the earthquake occurring, unlike the “30-minute” Indian system). Japan also has a very efficient institutionalised disaster management system unlike India’s, which has failed repeatedly during earthquakes, floods and even during the Bhopal gas tragedy.
India, which has 23 reactors and is now poised for building some two dozen imported nuclear power plants, needs to do a transparent reality check, as a nuclear core meltdown in over-populated India will result in the equivalent of a dozen Hiroshimas and Nagasakis. Nuclear power is important for India, but let us deligently and transparently examine the safety aspects else we may be setting ourselves up for a “trillion dollar hara-kiri”.The Nuclear Liabilities Bill, must not be diluted under foreign pressure.
While the Japanese economy may go into a recession, as it concentartes on rebuilding, and Japan (along with the industrial world) may gradually start using non-nuclear power plants (possibly gas-based), India must learn the appropriate lessons.
In Muscat, I felt proud as an Indian to see the Indian Navy’s First Training Squadron (comprising Indian Naval Ship Tir and Indian Coast Guard Ship Veera) on a goodwill port visit at a time when there is a lot of unrest in West Asia. Three more Indian Navy warships are returning from Libya, after evacuating Indians, while another Indian warship is on anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden. The Indian Navy’s March 14 action in neutralising a Somali pirate mothership (Vega-5) off our west coast and capturing 61 pirates showed how widespread this menace is (shipping insurance rates have increased 300 per cent in the Arabian sea).
Nations have traditionally used seapower for activities ranging from deterrence to war, to anti-piracy and relief operations, as demonstrated during the tsunamis of December 26, 2004, and March 11, 2011, and the evacuation of Indians from Lebanon (2006) and Libya (2011). However, Indian seapower, notwithstanding its time-tested efficiency, is only one instrument of the Indian state, and it is important that the Indian government takes a holistic view of the emerging scenario and has contingency plans in place. The West Asia and Gulf nations are different in many ways. Some are geostrategically very important as they are located at choke points through which global sea commerce flows, while others produce oil and gas, which drives the global economy. Unrest in one country has the potential of quickly creating unrest across many.
The convulsions in West Asia and Gulf are of great significance, given the impact of disrupted oil supplies on the global economy, which is already under pressure from recession, terror, piracy and the recent Japanese nuclear disaster.
The current unrest in West Asia has global ramifications with crude oil prices rising to $115 a barrel (the highest since 2008), and even inspiring a pro-democracy jasmine movement in China, which is facing a massive food shortage. The March 19, UNO sanctioned operation ‘Odyessy Dawn’, ostensibly for humanitarian reasons, is also meant for “stabilising” oil rich eastern Libya. In Egypt and Tunisia, the political changeover is being “overseen” by the military, while Iran and Saudi Arabia — the two regional heavy weight powers — are making their own moves to gain influence in areas like Iraq and Bahrein. I learnt in Muscat, that the 1,000-strong Saudi force, which recently entered Bahrein, is a mixed force comprising units from Saudi Arabia, UAE and Oman (the six nation “Gulf Co-operation Council” maintains a combined military-cum-police force in Saudi Arabia, for any regional emergencies).
The unfortunate fall-out of the present West Asian crisis may be a period of chaos, since some of these nations may become failed states (eg Yemen, located opposite Somalia in the Gulf of Aden) or come under fundamentalist rule. One can imagine the diastrous impact on the Indian and global economy if sea-borne trade (and oil flow) is disrupted in the straits of Hormuz and the Gulf of Aden.
India, whose economic rise continues despite poor governance and corruption, needs to factor in the increased terrorist threat, which may emnate from some of the collapsed regimes in West Asia, as also the ongoing implosion in Af-Pak region and the piracy threat from Somalia.
Given India’s marginal increase in this year’s defence budget (from Rs 1.51 lakh crores to Rs 1.64 crores, a mere 1.83 per cent of our gross domestic product), I am not sure if South Block has yet factored in the rapidly changing scenario (political upheavels, natural & man made disasters) in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and the Asia Pacfic Region (APR). Indeed, given the almost equitable flow of Indian and global seaborne trade to the East and the West, the IOR and APR are interlinked and are now being referred to as “IPR” (Indo-Pacfic Region). Hopefully, Indian Parliament, which is busy in solving scams, will find time to ensure security and safety of India, its people and its economy.
Vice-Admiral Arun Kumar Singh retired as Flag Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Eastern Naval
Command, Visakhapatnam