Is the Asia-Pacific region set to bear the onerous title of having become the disaster centre of the globe? So it would seem if one went by UNDP’s Asia-Pacific Development Report “One Planet to Share — Sustaining Human Progress in a Changing Climate”.
Climate-related disasters are on the rise and during the last two decades, 45 per cent of the world’s natural disasters, whether it be floods in Pakistan in 2010 or Cyclone Nargis which hit Burma in 2008, have occurred here, resulting in numerous deaths, massive human dislocations and severe economic losses.
The public here remain extremely vulnerable largely because while this region hosts half the world’s population, it also has two-thirds (900 million) of the world’s poor. India with its sizeable population hosts a sizeable chunk of this below the poverty line population whose access to social services remain limited and who, because of their limited means, will perforce bear the brunt of climate change.
Mountain communities, with a sizeable 140 million population, are vulnerable to food insecurity, especially those living above heights of 2,500 metres. Temperatures here are rising, snowfall is decreasing, springs are drying up as are other water sources. The communities living in India and Nepal complain against a proliferation of crop diseases and pests which is attributed to shrinking winter period and a decline in snow fall.
The river deltas of India, Bangladesh, China and Vietnam are being threatened by rising sea levels. River bank erosion, the report suggests, is displacing 500,000 people every year. Rising sea levels, one report suggests, will reduce land area by 21 per cent, thereby affecting 16 million people.
Erratic weather patterns have been found to adversely affect indigenous tribal populations who comprise 240 million with more than 500 ethnicities. Their problems may vary as is the case of tribal women in the Khuti district of Jharkhand who complain that rising temperatures has meant a decrease in the harvest of lac, a natural polymer from an insect, used to polish handicrafts and help maintain freshness of fruit.
Fisheries are under threat being, their numbers further reduced by pollution from agricultural runoff and untreated wastewater being discharged untreated into the sea. This again will impact the livelihoods of millions. The urban poor are equally at risk.
This is not to say that there is only bad news. This region has emerged as global hub for manufacturing It is a dynamo in terms of economic growth which has allowed large swathes of public to increase their incomes. Between 1990-2010, per capital GDP more than double across this region with China witnessing the sharpest rise. Economic growth has, however, seen skewed patterns of consumption.
Traditionally, Asians have been savers rather than spenders but all that seems to have changed. If Asians continue on their spending spree, then Asian consumers would account for 43 per cent of worldwide consumption in the next 18 years. Another shift has been the emergence of a sizeable middle class which has risen to 1.9 billion and whose lifestyle is also driven by increased use of durables. If by 2020, China expects to have 225 automobiles on the road, India by 2050 will have 811 million.
But these success stories need a resilient poor. Access to electricity is one such way of lifting the population out of poverty. At present, almost 38 per cent of people in South Asia have no access to electricity . In 2005, the Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana, a scheme to provide electricity to all rural households was launched. By 2011, 16 million connections have been provided to poor households. But if India wants to achieve 100 per cent rural access to electricity, they will have to more than double numbers to achieve a target of ten million households per year by 2015.
The National Action Plan on Climate Change adaptation-related expenditures were 2.6 per cent of GDP in 2006-7 but presently comprise almost 16 per cent of budgetary expenditure. This amount is expected to rise further though the report warns that key ministries that tackle climate change receive little budgetary support.