By being the only chief minister to be invited to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s dinner for the visiting US President Barack Obama, Omar Abdullah got his much-hoped-for opportunity to meet him and Michelle Obama. While whatever may have been the subject of their conversation, the fact remains that in all the public speaking that Mr Obama did in Mumbai or New Delhi, which included a reasonably strong reference to Pakistan and terrorist groups there, he did not utter the word “Kashmir”.

Shortly before Mr Obama’s visit, Mr Abdullah began a repeat of his “remove AFSPA” chant and continued the same during the former’s short stay in India, hoping to attract enough attention to elicit a reaction.
Mr Abdullah and the separatists will be well advised to introspect on the dynamics of the progressing India-US relationship and the kind of role Pakistan is playing in Afghanistan with the US. They must remember how badly Kashmir Valley suffered for at least a decade-and-a-half at the hands of terrorists inducted by Pakistan’s military, which is again trying its best to drag this region back to the brink.
People of the Valley must not allow themselves to be duped by the separatists about the US support or assistance in India and Pakistan resolving Kashmir, as there are many issues the US has to deal separately with both countries at different levels.
Mr Abdullah must seriously study what happened in Manipur, since its chief minister decided to arbitrarily remove the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) from parts of the state. Following the prolonged protest on Thangjam Manorama’s killing in August 2004, the AFSPA was lifted from Imphal’s municipal zone of four districts and the Army was withdrawn from it. However, the Manipur police’s special force known as Manipur Police Commandos (MPC “police commandos” is a highly misused term as there is no comparison between them and the kind of training and conditioning that Army commandos go through), who replaced the Army in these four districts — Imphal East, Imphal West, Thoubal and Bishnupur — became notorious for extra-judicial killings, and, in particular, fake encounters. In 2008, there were 27 recorded cases of torture and killing attributed to the MPC. Whereas earlier, they conducted “encounters” in isolated places, they soon began doing so in towns and cities, in broad daylight. One example is the killing of Chungkham Sanjit. Photographs of the alleged “encounter”, clicked by a local lensman and published in a tabloid, clearly revealed that contrary to the official version, Sanjit was standing calmly as the police commandos frisked him, spoke to him, took him inside the storeroom of a pharmacy, shot him and brought out his dead body. With this “encounter” getting photographed and publicised the Ibobi government was left embarrassed but it did not at all stop the Manipur police “commandos”, who have been repeating such acts with impunity.
Since the partial removal of the AFSPA in Manipur, terrorist-related violence in the state trebled in mid-2004, steadily increased, shot up further in 2007. The trend in 2008 indicated a further acceleration proved by a number of incidents in subsequent years. With 388 deaths caused by terrorism in 2007, 484 in 2008 and 369 in 2009, Manipur remains the most violent in India’s troubled Northeast, leaving behind the much larger Assam and Nagaland. Manipur, with just 8.52 per cent of the territory and 6.12 per cent of the Northeast’s population accounted for as much as 47 per cent of terrorism-related fatalities in the region in 2008 — i.e., four years since the AFSPA was lifted from parts of the state.
During that period, terrorists in Manipur made at least three attempts against Ibobi, including two at his residence and at least two attempts on Manipur’s police complexes. That is not all. In September 2009, governor Gurbachan Jagat, a former police officer, who survived many attacks during terrorism in Punjab, was fortunate again, as a Maruti car loaded with explosives was detected in the Raj Bhavan complex before the explosives detonated. All this happened while the governor was in Raj Bhavan.
In August 2009, both Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and home minister P. Chidambaram expressed their alarm about the great decline in the situation of security and law and order in Manipur, with the latter further stating that Manipur remained a major stumbling block for improving the North-eastern region.
One of the major causes of the three-month’s ordeal of stone-pelting can be traced back to the increase in presence of terrorists, whose steady re-induction into Kashmir Valley succeeded owing to the Centre’s decision to reduce the Army’s presence substantially over the period of 2004-2006.
Removal of the AFSPA from even parts of the Kashmir Valley is only going to strengthen the hands of Pakistani terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, Jaish-e-Mohammad and others, which amount to at least 45 per cent of the total of over 500 currently active. The remainder 55 per cent of Kashmiri Hizbul Mujahideen have been re-activated over the past two years since the Amarnath land agitation. Mere talk of removal of the AFSPA adds considerably to the motivation of these groups.
Some senior Kashmiri journalists, speaking to this daily, feel that Omar Abdullah’s current cry for removal of the AFSPA is manly to hide his own ineffectiveness. These journalists also maintain that confidence-building measures will only work under a chief minister who enjoys the confidence of the people. One such leader in the Valley is finance minister Abdul Rahim Rathar. In relation to removal of the AFSPA, they pointed out that the Public Safety Act promulgated by the J&K state government was frightening enough as it allowed arrests without any recourse/bail/trial for long periods, almost amounting to locking suspects and “throwing away the key”.
Regarding recommendations from powerful quarters of New Delhi, about giving more time to young Mr Abdullah, the chilling question asked was “usko aur waqt kis liye dena chahiye?... aur barbaadi karwaaney ke liye?” (What should he be given more time for?.. To bring about more destruction?).
If Mr Abdullah is slated or fated to stay on, he must concentrate on governance, consolidating the situation in the Valley and trying to maintain peace. He must not delude the people of the state with talk of removing the AFSPA or other unfounded expectations and what he and the separatists are projecting as convenient interpretations of what Mr Obama said or did not say during his significant visit to India. Mr Abdullah must be very clear about Pakistan’s agenda on Kashmir, which does not at all bode well for its people. And another very important aspect Mr Abdullah must bear in mind is the goodwill of the people of Jammu region which he has enjoyed, even when many in the Valley at the Centre felt he was misgoverning or not governing at all. That support may drop drastically if he continues to pursue or support separatist ideologies.
Anil Bhat, a retired Army officer, is a defence and security analyst based in New Delhi