An Army soldier gets into position during an operation in Keran sector—PTI

On 24 June 2013, a day ahead of the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi, eight soldiers were killed and 16 injured when terrorists ambushed an Army convoy near Hyderpora on the outskirts of Srinagar.

While the Kashmiri Hizb-ul Mujahideen claimed responsibility for the terror attack, police investigations reportedly revealed that it was launched by Pakistani Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT). The police identified LeT commander Mohammed Qasim, a Pakistani national, who has been active in south Kashmir since the last three years and has been also operating on the bypass stretch of the Srinagar-Jammu highway.
On 7 June 7, 2013, barely two days after Nawaz Sharif took oath as Pakistan’s Prime Minister and declared to “progressively pursue” normalcy in ties with India while actively exploring the possibility of resolving outstanding issues, including Kashmir, Pakistani troops resorted — without any provocation whatsoever — to heavy fire on Indian posts along the LoC in Subzian sub-sector of Poonch with automatics and rocket-propelled grenades. One of the rockets aimed at Lonawali post on the LoC, splintered and caused the death Naib Subedar Bachan Singh of Garhwal Rifles. Earlier, on May 27, Pakistani troops had pounded Indian posts along the LoC in the same Poonch sector with rockets. On May 24, Pakistani troops opened fire on Indian positions along the LoC in the Tutmari Gali sector, injuring a Brigadier and two soldiers. All these incidents of firing were initiated by Pakistani troops to facilitate induction across the LoC of terrorists trained and supported by Pakistani Army/Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
On 8 July 8, 2013, Pakistani terrorists detonated an IED targeting Indian Army’s civilian porters while they were carrying supplies from an Army post to another in Sabzian-Mandi belt along the LoC. A porter and a pony were killed in the blast, while another porter was wounded. While the wounded porter was shifted to a hospital, the body of the dead could not be recovered until a day later owing to the Pakistani Army firing at Indian soldiers trying to extricate it initially. It was only after a heavy exchange of fire with the Pakistani troops on July 9 that the Indian Army could recover the body of the civilian porter named Javaid Iqbal. In May 2013, porters were intercepted and assaulted by some Border Action Team (BAT) personnel from across the border who also snatched supplies from them. In early July 2013, a Pakistani intruder, trying to cross over to India, was killed when the IED he was carrying went off.
On May 20, 2013, J&K chief minister Omar Abdullah interacted with the media at the Foreign Correspondents Club of South Asia, New Delhi, and I pointed out a pattern of renewal of Pak-sponsored terrorism in J&K since 2012 after two very successful tourist-filled summers and also as a build-up in preparation of 2014, when the US would exit from Afghanistan. I also mentioned that Hafiz Saeed had issued a threat of stepping up terrorism in the Valley and that threats and attacks on sarpanches had been stepped up. Mr Abdullah outrightly denied my contention on both counts. He dismissed what I referred to as a build-up of cross-LoC incidents as “seasonal” and said attacks on sarpanches were nothing new or worrisome.
While attacks on sarpanches began in 2012, on April 4, 2013 LeT issued fresh threats to panches and sarpanches that they would face dire consequences if they did not resign from their posts. A brief look at Pak-sponsored terrorism in J&K in 2012 is relevant. The build-up following the melting of snow and opening of mountain passes was that from May 1 to June 30, 2012, there were 48 terrorist attacks/ceasefire violations. These were against the Army, paramilitary forces, J&K police and civil populace. A number of Pakistani terrorist leaders were killed or captured and a number of Pakistani terrorist hideouts and arms and ammunition dumps were destroyed by the Army and security forces. Some of the captured terrorists admitted during interrogation that the Inter-Services Intelligence/directors/handlers of terrorist groups had been quite frustrated about two highly-successful tourist seasons and that attacks in Kashmir Valley must be stepped up. Simultaneously, threats and attacks on sarpanches begun as a fresh modus for creating fear psychosis.
According to media reports, on May 10, 2012, SFs killed six militants and foiled a major infiltration bid near the LoC in Uri sector of Baramulla district, using this route after a gap of two years.
In 2013, the pattern and statistics of terrorist attacks and ceasefire violations has been: 20 in January, 24 in February, 29 in March, 28 in April, 27 in May, with 11 incidents on May 24, and 20 incidents in June. The major difference is that while what began last year was spread over the old/former terrorist strongholds like Kupwara, Sopore, Anantnag, Pulwama etc., this year, Srinagar has been added to the list, the attacks being launched against the state police and paramilitary forces, particularly the CRPF, are more daring/innovative and the network of cross-LoC directors /handlers and Kashmiri separatists/agents has been strengthened. These are sure indicators of renewed moral, material and monetary support for upping the ante in J&K. On March 14, 2013, two militants disguised as cricketers opened fire with automatic rifles on a CRPF base just outside Srinagar, restive and under curfew since the last few weeks following protests and clashes with the police. The terrorists were killed after they killed five CRPF personnel and wounded another five. On March 15, BJP state spokesperson Jitendra Singh said Pakistan National Assembly resolution, which condemned the execution of Parliament attacker/convict Afzal Guru and demanded the return of his body to his relatives, had exposed the dubious nexus of the ruling National Conference, PDP, Kashmiri separatists.
As in some cases in the past decades of Army fighting Pak-sponsored terror in J&K, positive fallout of nine effective operations get severely marred by one going wrong.
While Nawaz Sharif may well be trying to improve relations with India, both New Delhi and Srinagar will be well advised to take firm steps to prevent further step up of terrorism from Pakistan after exit of the US troops from Afghanistan as planned by Pakistan’s “military-mullah” combo.
New Delhi as well as Mr Abdullah and his government should have no doubts about the plans the Pakistani Army and terrorists trained by it have of stepping up terrorism in Kashmir valley after the Americans draw down their forces/withdraw from Afghanistan. If during the presence of the US coalition forces in Afghanistan there have been very active summers in Kashmir in 2012 and 2013 as well as in earlier years, then after the US withdrawal, all terrorist groups will enjoy much more of freedom of movement to up the ante both in Afghanistan and in J&K. Attacks by Pakistani terrorist groups or their proxies like the “Indian Mujahideen”, or whichever else, will also very likely be ratcheted in other parts of India, particularly in view of the forthcoming elections.