Two recent developments marking a new low in the plummeting US-Pak relationship following the killing of Osama bin Laden in the meticulously planned operation by the US special forces on May 2, 2011 happen to be rather ironically-timed coincidences. The first was the US attack killing 26 Pakistani soldiers on November 26, 2011, exactly three years after 10 Pakistani terrorists attacked Mumbai and the second was the US announcing a cut in aid to Pakistan almost exactly 40 years after sending its 7th Fleet into Indian waters to support Pakistan, which had provoked the third India-Pakistan War in December 1971. Pakistan waged both the 1965 and 1971 wars against India with weapons doled out to it by the US.
Ratcheting up pressure on its “troubled strategic ally,” leaders of the US negotiating panel, comprising armed services committees from both parties in the House and Senate including Republican Senator John McCain, agreed to freeze $700 million in US aid to Pakistan until it offers to help in the fight against the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in the region.
IEDs used by terrorists have been the most effective weapon against the US and coalition troops in Afghanistan. Many are made using ammonium nitrate, a common fertiliser shipped across the border from Pakistan to Afghanistan. The freeze on US aid was agreed as part of a defence bill that is expected to be passed this week. “The vast majority of the material used to make improvised explosive devices used against US forces in Afghanistan originates from two fertiliser factories inside Pakistan,” McCain said in the Senate.
With $20 billion allocated for security and economic aid since 2001, Pakistan has been one of the largest recipients of US foreign aid. While the cutback announced is only a small proportion of the $20 billion, it may lead to greater cuts as calls in the US grow shriller to penalise Islamabad for not only failing to act against militant groups, but worst, helping them.
Pakistan was reported to have subsequently arrested military officers suspected of spying for US intelligence agencies and it decided to expel more than a 100 US military trainers and tighten the process of granting visas to US military personnel. This move provoked an immediate reaction in slashing US aid, already a subject of heated debate within the US administration since the killing of bin Laden. Expressing increasing frustration with Pakistan’s efforts in the war against terror, US legislators reportedly made numerous proposals to make US aid to Pakistan conditional on more cooperation in fighting militants such as the Haqqani network, which Washington believes operates out of Pakistan and attacks US troops in Afghanistan.
In July, after Washington’s announcement of suspension of $800 million worth of security aid, Pakistan’s military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas told a foreign news agency: “The army in the past as well as at present has conducted successful military operations using its own resources without any external support whatsoever.” The suspended aid reportedly included about $300 million to reimburse Pakistan for some of the costs of deploying more than 1,00,000 soldiers along the Afghan border, Pakistan claims to have deployed 1,40,000 troops in the northwest, but to do more to crack down on militants, such as the Al Qaeda-linked Haqqani network which uses its soil to attack in Afghanistan, the Army says its troops are too over-stretched. The US also depends on Pakistan as a sea port and land corridor for moving its military supplies by road into Afghanistan.
The threats came from Pakistan’s defence minister Chaudhry Ahmad Mukhtar who said that troops would be pulled back from nearly 1,100 check posts set up along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border as his country could not afford to keep forces deployed there following the suspension of US military assistance. Clarifying that $300 million of the suspended aid was specifically meant for troops serving in the troubled tribal region, he further claimed that the proposed US move would sabotage efforts against the Taliban and Al Qaeda in the region and that if the raids continued there could be cross-border fighting. Referring to the controversy over Shamsi airbase, reportedly used by US drones, Mukhtar said the US, through the UAE, had been allowed the use of the airbase for “non-lethal weaponry, such as unarmed drones, and as a logistics support site”.
“The understanding was that the drones would fly from Shamsi base but only for surveillance. They were not supposed to be lethal and the next thing we knew they were using it for military attacks,” he was quoted.
Responding to US’ assertion that Al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri was in Pakistan’s tribal area, Mukhtar said he hoped that the US would not act on its own like the May 2 raid against Osama bin Laden in the garrison city of Abbottabad.
“This time round, we hope the Americans will work with the Pakistanis and share the intelligence,” he said. However, as per recent reports, Islamabad has closed the border crossings used by US coalition forces to transfer fuel and other supplies for their troops in Afghanistan.
On December 12, a senior Pakistani military official was cited by a foreign news agency stating that Pakistan will shoot down any US drone that intrudes its airspace. According to the new Pakistani defence policy, the official was quoted: “Any object entering into our airspace, including US drones, will be treated as hostile and be shot down.” Pakistan Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani was reported to have warned the US and Nato that any future cross-border attack would be met with a ‘detrimental response’. “The democratic government would not allow a similar attack on the country’s sovereignty and any attempt in future will definitely meet the detrimental response,” he said.
Afghanistan and the US have frequently criticised Pakistan for not doing enough to target sanctuaries on its soil from where terrorists regularly launch attacks against Nato troops in Afghanistan. The Afghan government has also accused Pakistan of firing hundreds of rockets into Kunar over the past few months and killing at least 40 people, an allegation denied by Pakistan.
Since 2004, US drones are estimated to have carried out more than 300 attacks inside Pakistan. On November 28, Maj Gen Abbas had reiterated that no shots were fired from the two posts in Pakistan’s Mohmand Tribal Agency, situated 330 yards behind a mountain ridge, beyond which are Afghanistan’s Nangarhar and Kunar provinces. Pakistan does not believe Nato troops could have mistaken the posts as Taliban militant bases.
While India has welcomed the US decision to cut aid to Pakistan, there is nothing for it to feel secure about. Exit of the bulk of coalition forces from Afghanistan will give terrorists greater freedom of movement and action. India will have to be alert in Jammu and Kashmir and for its reconstruction and assistance organisations in Afghanistan.