IS THERE any connection between and timing to the various instalments of WilkiLeaks, the Jasmine Revolution and obliteration of Osama bin Laden by the American special forces?
This is one question, among many others, emerging since the plethora of news reports began gushing or trickling in and are expected to continue for some more time at least. And it will be necessary to sift the wheat from the chaff in news and views, as some are bound to be very tall claims.
It remains to be seen to what extent some hitherto hidden facts which are surfacing and more lies that are getting exposed will alter politico-military equations as already some expected and unprecedented reactions and developments occur in the US, Pakistan, Afghanistan and India.
The first massive attack following the Pakistani Taliban’s threats against the Pakistan Army’s leadership issued shortly after Bin Laden’s killing was by two bomb blasts at a training centre for Frontier Constabulary (FC) in Charsadda, Pakistan, killing at least 80 and wounding over 120 others. Most of the victims were trainees from the FC training base who were boarding buses near its main gate to return home on leave. Other victims were in a nearby market. Witnesses said many of the casualties occurred in the second blast, after people came to aid those injured in the initial explosion. At least one of the bombs contained ball bearings and nails to increase the damage. Shortly after the bombing, a Pakistani Taliban spokesman called news agencies claiming responsibility and said the strike is a response to the Bin Laden’s killing.
Stung by criticism and online jokes like never before in Pakistan’s history, its Army caught with its pants down, resorted to the most ironic of histrionics. Admitting intelligence failure, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) director-general, Lieutenant-General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, sought an apology from the nation and offered to resign if the Parliament so demanded. Of course it did not. “The failure was not intentional but I admit that it was a mistake,” the ISI chief said during the in-camera joint sitting of Parliament that was briefed by security and intelligence officials. “Who cares! Another chamcha (spoon-implying a sycophant) will come in his place... the whole system is rotten to the core,” wrote a blogger.
Senior Pakistani Mohammad Shehzad, known for being blunt, wrote: “By carrying out an operation in Abbottabad, near the Pakistan Military Academy, and killing Osama, the US has got a certificate that unfortunately endorses Pakistan as the safest haven for terrorists. No apology or excuse can make the world change its opinion about us. However, had Army Chief Kiyani or ISI chief Pasha tendered their resignations accepting their incompetence, the world opinion could have been changed in our favour — positively to some extent. Ironically, no system of accountability exists in Pakistan and people in power are conscience-less.”
Out of the material allegedly found during the raid on Bin Laden’s lair in Pakistan’s Abbottabad cantonment being referred to as a “treasure trove”, including hard drives, disk drives, thumb drives, flash drives, recording devices, videos and a journal, the US is reported to have released five videos. While it may well be a treasure trove, it remains to be seen how the US manages whatever operationally valuable information it finds related to the Al Qaeda’s plans in/for Afghanistan, Pakistan and other countries, particularly the United States. News reports say that Bin Laden was well in touch with his operational commanders and that he had planned for widely dispersed attacks on soft and populous targets, like railways and infrastructure. The raid yielded 2.7 terabytes of data described as the “largest collection of senior terrorist materials ever collected”. That was not all. Also recovered was a fairly extensive stash of modern, electronically recorded video porn, which some Indian TV news networks went to town with.
Hailing Bin Laden as a holy warrior and congratulating the Muslim ummah (brotherhood) on his martyrdom, the Al Qaeda said it will soon release an audio tape made by its leader a week before he died, vowing not to deviate from the path of armed struggle and stated, “We call upon our Muslim people in Pakistan, on whose land Sheikh Osama was killed, to rise up and revolt to cleanse this shame that has been attached to them by a clique of traitors and thieves and, in general, to cleanse their country from the filth of the Americans who spread corruption in it.”
An Abbottabad datelined report published in this daily informs about a madrasa close to the house, Laden’s hideout, where young Pakistani students who consider him to be a religious hero, are furious over his death. With sentiments like “there are many Osamas in the Muslim world and the US can’t defeat his ideology. I will myself become Osama and revenge his death one day,” emanating from madrasas in Pakistan (which mushroomed from 250 in 1947, to not exactly known how many thousands more than 20,000), both Pakistan and the US need to be very wary.
Prior to Bin Laden’s killing, a very serious problem in Pakistan exposed by the murders of leaders who spoke against the anti-blasphemy law was that no one in the government or the Army was prepared to — leave alone belling the cat by taking any action — even speak out against it or even publicly extend moral or material support to the victims’ families. On the other hand, the murderers were being glorified even after being arrested and tried. Besides, with the process of Islamisation of Pakiatan Army since the days of the third tin-pot President, General Zia-ul-Haq having matured and “Zia-bharti” officers becoming senior generals and equivalents, there seems little chance of initiation of any corrective measures like monitoring of madrasas or assisting the US in achieving its other aims.
In an interview with the media, author and historian Webster Griffin Tarpley elaborated on a US ploy to divide Pakistan. He said, “I think they (relations between US and Pakistan) are very bad. They could be going in the direction of open war. The war against Pakistan was basically declared by Obama in his West Point speech in December 2009. This has now been escalated. We’ve had the Ray Davis affair. We’ve had a series of acrimonious exchanges between General Kayani and Admiral Mullen at this joint chiefs of staff meetings”. Tarpley claims that the US plan is to fragment Pakistan in four ways, so that there will never be a Pakistan oil pipeline from Iran into China, a big strategic goal of the US. Stating that the breakup of Pakistan is at the top of the US agenda and that it has to be done indirectly because Pakistan has nuclear weapons.
Ten days after Op Geronimo, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who visited Afghanistan after six years, was unprecedentedly honoured by being housed in the King’s suite of the majestic King Zahir Shah Palace in Kabul, opened for the first time since 2001. In a clear departure from routine protocol, Kabul appointed two minister-in-waiting instead of one, i.e. the defence and foreign ministers of Afghanistan, who accompanied Dr Singh at all events during his two-day visit. In another rare gesture, Dr Manmohan Singh became the first foreign head of state to address a joint session of Parliament on 15 May 2011.
India assured another $500 million in development assistance to Afghanistan and pledged to stand by the country “through thick and thin”. The heightened strategic partnership will include an enhanced role in training Afghanistan’s security and police forces in counter-terrorism, regular summit-level meetings, more institutionalised and regular dialogues at various levels, and on wide-ranging subjects. Besides both countries will also enter into a strategic economic partnership, to explore closer integration in the economic field as well as greater cooperation in sectors ranging from mining to fuel and energy. “The two countries agreed on the importance of regional projects, such as the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, in promoting regional integration,” said the joint declaration.
The Pakistan Army’s response to New Delhi making public the names of 50 Pakistanis accused of involvement in terrorist activities in India, which include five serving Pakistani majors, has been a vehement denial that any serving officer, either in the military or the ISI, has been involved in terrorist activities inside India. This is yet another outright lie, already exposed and known to the US through investigations on Dawood Gilani, alias David Coleman Headley, and Tahawwur Hussain Rana. This was shortly followed by disgraced ISI boss Pasha’s bluster that any “Abbottabad-like attack by India will invite a ‘befitting response’ from Pakistan on ‘targets in India already identified and rehearsals carried out’”.
While India has tried to increase diplomatic pressure on Pakistan after Bin Laden’s killing and though more evidence of the ISI’s terrorist activities may surface as the trial of these two Lashkar-e-Tayyaba operatives’ involvement in 26/11 progresses, Pakistan can be expected to continue stonewalling India’s efforts. Pakistani interior minister Rehman Malik’s response to India’s demand for disclosure of Dawood Ibrahim’s whereabouts, that he is not in his country is yet another blatant lie, which was countered by home secretary G.K. Pillai, “If the minister is so sure that Dawood is not in Pakistan, he should tell us where he is.”
While the US-Pakistan relationship has no doubt deteriorated and do so further if the US repeats attacks ala Bin Laden against more terrorist bosses, New Delhi seems destined to plod on against Pakistani lies and watch cautiously, while spending crores on hosting hard-core terrorists like Kasab.
Anil Bhat, a retired Army officer, is a defence and security analyst based in New Delhi