Besides dangling before the US President George Bush Jr, the enticing prospects of the crude oil price plummeting to $12 per barrels once the US had invaded and occupied Iraqi oil fields, the Cabals in the Pentagon and the state department had also painted an equally fascinating picture of the entire Arab world blooming with democracy. But what actually followed is history.

Similarly, what was hailed as a welcome burst of Arab Spring, symbolising unprecedented yearning for democracy with the Tunisian fruit vendor Mohammed Bouazizi setting himself ablaze protesting against forceful seizure of his fruit cart and scales on December 17, 2010, which brought thousands of young men and women on the streets armed with their cellphones buzzing with social networking setting in motion a process that ended the 30 year-old-rule of Ben Ali and made him flee the country has turned out to be something totally different.
In 2011, the Fragrance of Tunisian Jasmine revolution reached Egypt where youth descended in Tahrir square in Cairo in much bigger numbers demanding ouster of Hosni Mubarak. The Secularists and the Islamist joined hands and used the youth protests to end Mubarak’s 40-year-long rule. Belatedly realising which way the wind was blowing, the US dumped her ally of three decades. Us president Barack Obama asked Mr Mubarak to hand over power to the generals who promised to hold elections. The fragrance spread to Yemen and Libya.
In Yemen the generals, secularists, Islamists and political leaders agreed for power-sharing, thus, avoiding the bloodshed. In Libya, Muammar Gaddafi who waged war against his own people for months was eventually captured when Nato forces bombed his convoy running out of his hideout and was killed in the most brutal and humiliating manner. After-effects of Tunisian Spring were also felt in Jordan, Morocco and even in Saudi Arabia, though they have survived for the time being by expanding the dole outs to common people. Not risking Sunni-Shia divide, the US gave a blind eye to Saudi Arabian troops help quell protests in Bahrain. Those who hailed the Arab Spring and welcomed the dawn of democracy are now wondering what went wrong. Where has that euphoria and optimism evaporated? Why are protesters in the streets again? Why this disillusionment? Today, when one looks at the Arab world, it looks anything but an area of flourishing democracy: piles of debris, total collapse of law and order, guns, goons and militias rule street; normal life is marked by disruption, chaos and crime. Does the current situation reflect pangs of democracy? Is this a mere transitional phase, eventually leading to transformation of the whole region? Has the Arab spring turned into Arab winter? We must face some ground realities to have a clearer picture:
l Arab Spring wasn’t about democracy. It was a desperate expression, on massive scale, of people’s pent up anger, utter dissatisfaction and sheer frustration against decades of unjust and authoritarian rule of oligarchic autocratic that brooked no dissent but failed to address people’s most basic needs of daily lives.
l There hasn’t been a uniform, well-chalked out strategy to oust the rulers. In each country, protesters have embraced what they thought was the best way to pressurise the regime and get their demands accepted.
l With most sophisticated info gathering devices and huge presence in the region, the US and it’s Western allies were taken by surprise by the turn of the events. They really had no clue. We too were clueless.
l American reaction has been ambivalent. Initially, the US tried to embrace the streets in Cairo while assessing whether Mr Mubarak could survive. Then, they dumped him unceremoniously. However, they were totally nonplussed when Muslim Brotherhood led by Mohammed Morsi emerged as the new ruler through democratic election. They weren’t sure what to expect from him but chose to have functional relations given Egypt’s significance for their West Asia policy. Now that he has been thrown out by the Army, they are reluctant to call it a coup.
l The prevailing situation is a reality check for West’s much-touted commitment to democracy. The regimes that have come to power in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and the one which might, at some future date, replace Bashar Assad in Syria might not represent the Western idea of democracy. So, should they indulge in regime change again? But who can guarantee that the regimes which follow will be pro-US and pro-West?
l Democracy in the Arab world is a nascent process. It is bound to experience many ups and downs and even upheavals before it stabilises. Prevailing chaos notwithstanding people’s aspirations and expectations can’t be put back in the bottle. Arab world is gone past Islamist era. Islamists ought to learn to compromise and accommodate their rival as in Tunisia, given a chance. Over a period, they will learn to participate in the political process. Prof. Mandavelle of George Mason University Washington sees 20 years of turmoil in the Arab world and dismantling of boundaries similar to Yugoslavia in 1991. In his cynical view, the current churning can be “deferred nation building”.
l The revolution triggered by the Tunis spring isn’t wholly middle class driven. Thousands of poor from Cairo who lived in the city of Dead (area earmarked for burials and tombs) participated in protests. They demand a government that ensures stability and order and provide jobs, shelter and healthcare and honours their right to own property, buy and sell, it if needed and is not reeking with corruption.
l Countries which never witnessed dialogue, discourse and debate, nor institutional structures, for political activities and where dissenters found themselves in prison rather than in the Parliament can’t metamorphose in to thriving Western democracies. But to describe the recent setbacks as disaster is missing the bigger picture. Underneath the chaos, one can discern a faint movement forward for democracy. Democracy isn’t like instant coffee, you stir and it’s ready, it takes time to grow roots before it rises as a shining plant. The west, particularly the US, ought to leverage people’s yearning for democracy and see that their aspirations aren’t stifled by whosoever controls the power of the state. But isn’t their commitment to democracy and leverage to influence quite weak?
l Mr Morsi blew the wonderful opportunity by flouting the constitution and riding rough shod against his rivals. But banning the Islamic brotherhood and prosecuting him for prison break during Mr Mubarak’s time shows complete bankruptcy of the interim government in Egypt effectively run by the Chief of the Army Gen. Sisi. With number of protesters being shot rising rapidly, he is pushing the country to the brink of a civil war! After languishing in prisons for decades under Mr Mubarak. The Islamists gambled to participate in an open election and won. Forcing them to go underground will be committing a political hara-kiri! Pushed to the wall, their faith in democracy shattered, they might conclude that resorting to violence was the only option. Isn’t Gen. Sisi transforming Egypt in to Algeria after elections in 1991? That will be a huge setback for the future of democracy in the Arab world.
The US and all votaries of democracy should stop this precipice.

Surendra Kumar is a former Indian ambassador to Libya