In 64 years of relations severely strained by three conventional wars, nuclearisation and a fourth war by proxy export of terrorism by Pakistan’s military to India continuing since three decades, the meeting of commerce ministers and industrialists of both countries after a gap of 35 years indeed comes as an unexpected, but not unpleasant surprise.
Pakistan’s commerce and trade minister Makhdoom Amin Fahim, accompanied by an 80-member delegation of elite Pakistani businessmen, came on a five-day visit to India to attend the India-Pakistan Business Conclave, organised by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci) and Union commerce and industry minister Anand Sharma, sessions of which were held at Mumbai and New Delhi from September 26-30.
The second surprise was that the Mumbai session was held at the same majestic Taj Mahal Palace hotel which was targeted by terrorists on 26/11/08. Mr Fahim and members of his delegation expressed their pleasure at being able to come for this visit and warmly interacted with their Indian counterparts both in Mumbai and New Delhi with hopes on both sides of major breakthroughs. The visit is aimed at promoting bilateral trade with a strong possibility of Pakistan announcing a step forward on the most favoured status (MFN) for India. The two sides are also expected to focus on liberalising the visa regime for businessmen. Pakistan’s commerce minister’s visit, materialising barely two months after its foreign minister Hina Rabbani Khar’s July-end visit, must obviously be the result of some positive atmosphere generated during Ms Rabbani’s talks with her Indian counterpart S.M. Krishna, preceded by foreign secretary-level parleys, which included a number of steps to boost cross-Kashmir trade and travel.
Following the severe 2005 earthquake in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, India opened three points at Chakan Da Bagh (Poonch), Teetwal (Tangdhar) and Aman Setu (Uri) on the Line of Control (LoC) between India and Pakistan for facilitating large-scale relief stores and assistance. Addressing the media prior to her visit, Ms Khar was reported to have said that both countries were committed to result-oriented dialogue resumed in February this year since its suspension following the Mumbai attacks.
Adding that the bilateral dialogue enjoyed the backing of President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, PML-Q president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain as well as all Opposition leadership, including PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif and Maulana Fazlur Rehman, she had expressed hope of positive results/breakthrough and that “history should not be a burden but a motivator”.
On September 30 at New Delhi’s Maurya Hotel, where delegates of both countries addressed and met the media after their discussions, the mood was indeed upbeat and the speeches peppered with catchy Urdu phrases and couplets. Top CEOs from Indian and Pakistani companies highlighted business opportunities and synergies between the two countries. Mr Fahim expressed optimism at “the dawn of a new era of trade and investment relations with India as both countries are now poised to open bank branches, and land routes”.
“Bilateral trade between India and Pakistan is expected to flourish and hopefully all non-tariff barriers would be removed soon. These measures will send a positive signal to the business community about the sincere intention of the two governments,” he said.
According to him, the atmosphere of fear and apprehension has reduced considerably and businesspersons in both countries have started to believe that governments of both countries are committed to normalisation of trade relations. As regards Safta (South Asian Free Trade Area), he said that Pakistan wanted to make it an effective and meaningful agreement and hoped that the unnecessary long sensitive lists of products would be considerably reduced. He observed that Safta would enter into negotiations with Asean to create a bigger block, thus having Asean as a partner on the east and Ecota (Economic Cooperation Organisation Trade Agreement), which has Turkey and Central Asia, on the west. Appreciating India’s commerce ministry and Ficci’s role in facilitating the Pakistani delegates with visas easing the restriction of exit and entry points, the minister hoped that this becomes a permanent facility to encourage Pakistani businessmen to visit India. Mr Fahim’s concluding remarks — “With many similarities, including build and looks, anyone looking at us in this hall will not be able to make out who is an Indian and who is a Pakistani. The only list we should have now should be of friends-along list” — drew cheers.
Describing the conclave as a as a “defining moment in bilateral trade relations”, Mr Anand Sharma said: “Both of us agreed that a meaningful economic engagement necessarily requires greater movement of businesspeople and there is a need for liberalising the business visa regime. We have urged the concerned officials on both sides to expeditiously conclude the liberal business visa regime by November.”
Mr Sharma said Mr Fahim had recognised that the grant of MFN status to India would be a key step in expanding bilateral trade relations. “We hope that Mr Fahim would carry home the message of goodwill from the Indian business community and secure political mandate for greater trade liberalisation with India,” he said.
Emphasising the need to look afresh and work together to change the paradigm, he urged Mr Fahim to lend his leadership to providing new life and energy to the process of Saarc economic integration. “India will reciprocate in equal measure. I heard the commerce secretary of Pakistan saying that we should aspire for an economic community which links Saarc with Asean. It is indeed a bold vision and we must strive towards achieving this objective,” he said.
“Strengthening the border infrastructure remains a high priority for us. The integrated checkpost which is being constructed at the Attari-Wagah border at a cost of `150 crores will be operational by the end of the current year,” he added and concluded that the government-to-government talks and dialogue between businessmen of the two sides was marked by freshness and frankness and that if such openness persists it would send a powerful message not only in the South Asian region, but to the entire world.
While the business conclave was also addressed by Federation of Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) president, Senator Haji Ghulam Ali, former Ficci president Rajan Bharti Mittal, Ficci secretary-general Rajiv Kumar, the special session’s panel discussants were chief executive, Trade Development Authority of Pakistan, Mr Tariq Iqbal Puri, Dr Mirza Ikhtiar Baig, CEO, Pak Denim, Mr Nadeem Khan, CEO, Raaziq International, Mr Arvind Mehta, joint secretary, Saarc and other Indian bureaucrats connected with the process. Also present was Pakistan’s high commissioner Shahid Malik.
With Pakistan favourably inclined to give MFN status to India, both countries agreed to work out modalities to open trade in the petroleum sector, energy and commodities, as well as opening up of the banking sector and cross-border investments. India had granted MFN status to Pakistan way back in 1996. Pakistan has given access to 1,940 product lines on its positive list and has 12,000 on the negative list. India-Pakistan trade was estimated to be $1.85 billion in 2009-10. Indian exports accounted for $1.78 billion.
In April-December 2010, bilateral trade is estimated to have gone up to over $3 billion with India’s exports at $1.7 billion. A study by Delhi-based Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations estimates bilateral trade between India and Pakistan could go up to $14.3 billion.
Chatting with some of the delegates after the “feel-good” event, I could not help quipping to some Pakistani businessmen if all these proceedings had the approval of Pakistan’s Army Chief. Amid some laughs, an Indian businessman quipped back that Pakistan’s head of Inter-Services Intelligence should be included as another entrepreneur as the Pakistan Army itself is a veritable business organisation and the Indian Army should be requisitioned by the Pakistan Army to train/assist it for its currently challenging tasks. While there is no doubt that this conclave is a very positive development which must be vigorously pursued, both countries will have to be very cautious in dealing with Pakistan’s negative elements like the jihadi combo, who may classify such cooperation as “unIslamic” or the Army, which has so far been very well known to be extremely allergic to peace or friendship between India and Pakistan.
Anil Bhat, a retired Army officer, is a defence and security analyst based in New Delhi