Arrest overdue, celebrations premature
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Janardhan Reddy's long overdue arrest rids the BJP of a leader seen by many within the conservative party here as more a curse than a blessing. But any celebrations (muted, so far) by Karnataka Chief Minister D.V. Sadananda Gowda and Reddy baiters over exorcising the 'corrupt' canker from their midst, would be grossly premature.
In the short term, a man who brought the party into disrepute has written himself out of the script. Long-term, the BJP has lost a canny, cash-rich politician who not only had the 'Republic of Bellary' in the bag but was able to draw several neighbouring districts - Raichur, Gadag, Chitradurga and Koppal - into its sphere of influence. More important, soon after the 2008 victory, it was Reddypower that bolstered the BJP's numbers in the state to an unassailable 123 legislators, when the mine-barons bankrolled Operation Lotus 1, 2 and 3.
The seeds of destruction probably lie in the hubris of the self-styled kingmaker who didn't get his due then or now, and plotted to destabilize a government of his own making.
The shock arrest of Mr Reddy on Monday morning therefore may spell finis to the saffron party's main financier in the state and beyond, but it has left no-one of any stature to take over his mantle, however tattered, in these key districts.
Nudging his more popular associate Sreeramulu who has some hold over the masses, to exit the party leaves a vacuum that is not going to be easy to fill. Sreeramulu has clearly been tasked to keep the Reddy fires - not the BJP's - burning.
But with former chief minister B S Yeddyurappa, the most influential Lingayat leader the BJP has in its ranks (who may have even planted the seeds of the rebellion by trying to cut the Reddys down to size), also likely to cool his heels in jail for a while, the BJP will be missing the winning combination of cash and caste that powered the party to the top.
Mr Sadananda Gowda has some 20 months to go before fresh elections are called. He may choose to allow the Lingayat Jagadish Shettar to fill BSY's shoes, to counter the challenge posed by a new force led by Sreeramulu and leaders cutting across party lines who speak for the backwards.
But with the curious coincidence of both Mr Yeddyurappa and the BJP's arch rival Mr H.D. Kumaraswamy of the JD(S) facing their nemesis in court on the same day - September 7 - Gowda's only hope is that he will be able to face the people without being weighed down by the albatross of corruption.
That, and the fact that a deeply divided Congress in the state, facing down its own demons including the powerful rebel Jaganmohan Reddy across the border in Andhra, cannot make an issue of corruption just yet.
Gowda maybe playing with a weak hand. But that's all he's got for now.
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