China's rising assertiveness worries Delhi
As New Delhi prepares to take on a bigger international profile as a UN Security Council member from January 1, 2011, high-level government sources said here on Wednesday that China's growing assertiveness, particularly in our neighbourhood, would be one of India's biggest foreign policy challenges in the years ahead.
A significant Chinese presence is already visible in countries bordering India like Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, and this is only likely to increase.
The sources said the apparent shift in China's position on Kashmir, after years of seeming neutrality, was also a cause of some concern. The controversy over its issuance of "stapled" visas to Indians from Jammu and Kashmir - which is still continuing - and signs of a growing Chinese-Pakistani nexus in northern Kashmir (with the Chinese PLA reportedly taking on a larger role in maintaining the Karakoram highway linking parts of Pakistani-occupied Kashmir with Chinese-held territory) was also deeply troubling, with a high-level source describing it as "literally a marriage made in the Karakoram".
It is felt in strategic circles here that China's increased assertiveness could be attributed to a bigger foreign policy role being played by its military establishment - which has made no secret of its intention to expand its presence in the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean regions.
The sources said that New Delhi was therefore looking at strengthening relations, not just with major powers like the United States, Russia and Japan, but also with regional powers such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam with whom India shared certain security concerns.
A renewed focus on the "Look East" policy appears likely, and particular emphasis is being laid on Jakarta - given its size, population, the commonality of interests as well as the civilisational links with this country. Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is expected to be the chief guest at the next Republic Day celebrations.
The sources noted at the same time that it was important not to draw "doomsday conclusions" on India-China ties. "The relationship has matured, evolved in many areas in the past two decades. The trade volume is expected to touch $60 billion this year. The numbers of Chinese in India, of Indians in China keep growing...," a high-level source noted, pointing to increasing multilateral-level cooperation in matters like WTO and climate change. "It's not a relationship that has a layer of trust that you have not been able to permeate." And in some ways, "since we are an anchoring economy, we have a definitive advantage."
It is also felt that with the beginnings of a debate within China about its political future, the internal churning will also grow. "A game-playing has begun," the high-level source noted. "And I don't think the last word has been said."
On the boundary question, though, while things were "tranquil" despite some points of friction, "we have still to build convergence enough to be able to reach a settlement," the source added.
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