The BJP patriarch’s shocking attack on his own party at its party executive, where he clearly reminded them that until and unless they reinvented themselves as a secular party under a secular leader, they would not be able to draw on new allies to become the party of governance, underlined the central dilemma facing the parties of the Opposition.
The main opposition party’s perception remains this - despite the corruption and charges of ineptitude, the United Progressive Alliance formed to oust the BJP led NDA in 2004 came through in 2008. And while it could face another realignment in the run up to 2014 with the recent parting of ways with the Trinamul an indicator that the Congress would try to gain the upper hand over its regional allies, was the recent perceived rift with the NCP, an extension of the troubles that had beset Congress-Mamata ties? And did that mean that the BJP could add to its own kitty of allies?
The recent developments have shown that the ruling coalition at the Centre is growing ever more fragile and the feeling of distrust is growing among the allies. If the Trinamul quit the UPA and the Centre on the issues of diesel price increase, capping subsidies on cooking gas and the FDI in retails, the DMK has been delaying nominating its leaders for cabinet rank berths which have remained vacant after the resignation of Mr A Raja and Mr Dayanidhi Maran. And the NCP is being painted as a party of corrupt leaders. Even the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference is not comfortable with the Congress for different reasons.
The Congress party’s intial strategy for 2014 was to go it alone, but with a new face. But its humiliating defeats in assembly eections in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Goa, plus instability in its southern bastion of Andhra Pradesh has put a question mark over its
political prospects, especially whether it can retain over 200 seats in the next Lok Sabha poll.
The Tamil Nadu Congress has let the high command know that the DMK is a liability. Maharashtra Congress, especially the chief minister Prithviraj Chavan is determined to weaken the Sharad Pawar-led party after realising that the Congress can regain lost ground only by marginalising the NCP.
Neither the DMK nor the NCP have an option but to stay with the Congress in the UPA till the next Lok Sabha elections.
Despite the Trinamul Congress’ departure, Congress managers are confident they can manage the numbers, relying on the support of the Samajwadi Party, the BSP, smaller parties and Independents.
They are even confident that the AIADMK will support the UPA if the DMK quits, and similarly believe that the Janata Dal (U) could move closer to it, if the BJP projects Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidates. Therefore, the AIADMK, the JD(U), the Left, the Janata Dal (S) are seen as prospective allies of the Congress.
Barring the Left, NCP, Samajwadi Party and the RJD, other political parties had allied with the BJP led front when it was led by the liberal Atal Behari Vajpayee. The DMK, Trinamul Congress. Jammu and Kashmir National Conference, BJD, LJP and even the TDP had shared power with the BJP under the NDA banner at the Centre.
In fact, the Janata Dal (U) and the BSP got minorities votes despite remaining with the BJP while the Janata Dal (S) had even shared power with the saffron party in Karnataka. The TDP’s G M C Balayogi had become the Lok Sabha speaker as a part of the power sharing arrangement.
Mr Vajpayee had succeeded in removing the BJP’s political ‘untouchability’ factor after the demolition of Babri masjid in 1992 and ruled the country for six long years. But if the BJP wants to see a complete realignment in its favour, it must do some quick thinking. Can it bring Mamata Banerjee on board? In Jammu and Kashmir, it had earlier allied with the Peoples Democratic Party, a breakaway from the Congress, and made Mufti Mohammad Sayeed the chief minister. If it reaches out to Sharad Pawar who could in all likelihood widen his base even further by reviving the non Shiv Sena-BJP parties like the Peasants and Workers Party, the Janata Parivar, RPI factions and thereby make a dent in the Congress’ political consntituency, as it has already split the Congress’ Maratha and Dalit support base, then the BJP-led NDA alliance is in with a chance.
Mr Chavan is no mass leader nor has the credentials of administrators like chief ministers Narendra Modi, Nitish Kumar, Naveen Patnaik or even the late CM Y.S. Rajshekhar Reddy who are synonymous with Gujarat, Bihar, Orissa and Andhra Pradesh respectively.
Maharashtra, like the rest of the smaller political formations, could be rich pickings for an imaginative BJP.