Didi faces winter chill

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West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee's plan to move a no-confidence motion against the Manmohan Singh government in the Winter Session of Parliament commencing on November 22 may run into trouble and may deeply fracture the Opposition.

Here are five reasons why her plan will not succeed:

1. Didi will need atleast 50 MPs to sign the demand for the No-Confidence motion. The TMC has only 19 MPs. No party is willing to come forward and sign the demand. And here is why.

2. The main Opposition party, the BJP, and the Left parties are not sure if Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samajwadi Party will support Mamata. Though both the parties have gone hammer and tongs against the move to bring in FDI in retail, Mulayam and Mayawati may not walk the full mile when it comes to pulling down the UPA government in Delhi.

Hence, signing the demand notice for a no-trust motion will come in for flak.

The UPA is sure of getting the support of the SP, BSP and the DMK. Reasons? Well, the BJP and the Opposition parties have given a reason behind the Mulayam-Maya love for Manmohan Singh government – the CBI. Both the leaders face major cases and dusting one or two files would give the leaders sleepless nights before the 2014 general elections.

3. If the No-Confidence vote fails, which is likely, the UPA will be a picture of confidence for the next six months as another no-trust move cannot be moved in this period. By the time the next No-Confidence motion comes up for consideration, it will be just before the general elections and the UPA will have no doubt in going in for early polls.

Senior BJP leader Murli Manohar Joshi was on target when he said” "If the numbers are not adequate and the motion fails, the government becomes safe for the next six months within which another such motion cannot be brought. If the motion is passed and the government falls, you have to think of the next course of action."

4. Moreover, if the no trust vote gets defeated, the government will go to town claiming that it is an endorsement of all its major policies. CPI’s Gurudas Dasgupta disagrees here. “If any resolution fails, the reverse is not true,” he told journalists in New Delhi.

The BJP, JD(U) and the Left parties are more comfortable with moving a motion of debate that will entail voting. In such a scenario, the DMK, SP and BSP may sail with the Opposition move and will give these parties a chance to demonstrate to their voters their opposition for FDI. Such a move will not bring down the government but will deeply embarrass it, giving the impression that the UPA is a minority government.

That the UPA has the numbers solidly behind them is the reason behind the brave and, sometimes, challenging statements made by ministers like Anand Sharma and Jayanthi Natarajan.

Said Sharma: “The government is confident and ready to face any challenge and continuing with its good work”.

Added Jayanthi Natarajan: “Mamata Banerjee will find that if she brings a no confidence motion, she will be defeated with a resounding majority. We will show her our strength."

5. Apart from the numbers, the confidence also stems from the fact that Manmohan Singh has been very aggressive in garnering support through the recent dinner diplomacy. He dined with Mulayam Singh Yadav and lunched with Mayawati and is scheduled to dine with the BJP too.

With the Samajwadi Party's 22 MPs and the Bahujan Samaj Party's 21, Manmohan Singh has around 300 MPs in the 545-seat Lok Sabha on his side. This is comfortably over the half-way mark at 273.

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