Early rain precipitated disaster
Giving a low down of the Kedarnath disaster, ministry of earth sciences secretary Shailesh Nayak blamed the unusual behaviour of the monsoon which hit north India two weeks earlier than was expected.
“The rainfall came two weeks early. Generally, by the time the rains come in June-end, the snow has melted but this year round the winter snow had not melted,” he explained.
A compounding feature, Dr Nayak explained, was that the glacial regions above Kedarnath had received fresh and excess snowfall when heavy rainfall hit the region as was shown in pictures by the National Remove Sensing Centre.
Dr Nayak said, “Rainwater (with higher temperature) fell on the snow, causing heavy snow melt and this combined with the rainwater runoff resulted in a huge amount of water flow sweeping through the Kedarnath town.”
The secretary further pointed out that the heavy rains allowed the moraine to fill up. Glacial retreat leaves a trail of debris that allows lakes to form. “Obviously, the moraine got breached by heavy rainfall, bringing with it large boulders. The buildings located in the river bed of the Mandikini added to the destruction,” Dr Nayak added.
When asked whether dynamiting of the mountains would have precipitated this disaster, Dr Nayak said, “Himalayas are young and weak mountains that came up 50-60 million years ago. It is still rising. There is an inherent weakness (in these mountains) which are in a state of flux. Anything you do, will have an impact,” he said.
He said the India Met Department gives forecasts at both the national and state levels. The regional centres collect locally synoptic information as was done in Uttarakhand and this relayed to the different cities in the state. These forecasts possess 70-80 per cent accuracy.
On the question of whether Doppler weather range computers would have helped forecast the Uttarakhand calamity, he said, “These are useful for now casting but we need other measurement instrumentalities.”
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