IMD predicts a normal monsoon
Indian farmers can heave a sigh of relief as the Meteorological Depart-ment has forecast a normal monsoon for 2012 with the rains expected to hit Kerala on June 1. This will be the third normal monsoon in three consecutive years.
Science and technology minister Vilasrao Deshmukh said the monsoon is classified as “normal” if the rainfall is between 96 and 104 per cent of the average seasonal rainfall. This year the rainfall is expected to be around 99 per cent of the average.
But the IMD has qualified the prediction by adding a note of caution: there remains a 24 per cent chance of deficient rainfall.
Scientist D.S. Pai, who heads the Pune Long Forecasting Division, said there had been an initial scare relating to El Nino developments but it is under “neutral conditions as of now”.
There is an approximately 39 per cent probability of the emergence of weak El Nino conditions during the latter part of the monsoon season but the Met department does not expect this to affect the monsoon. Dr Pai also pointed out that the moderate La Nina conditions had disappeared in 2011 but these re-emerged in a weaker manner and have continued till the first half of February 2012. “These also have got neutralised,” Dr Pai added.
The Met department is expecting normal rains because of the absence of any “extreme indicators”. Some foreign forecasters had warned that India would witness a deficient monsoon this year.
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