West Bengal: Trinamul prepares for ‘inevitable’ win

A few hours from now just could be the beginning of a green revolution in West Bengal.

The Mamata brigade has already started preparing for what they believe is “inevitable” — a Trinamul Congress victory in the Assembly elections.

“Badla noy, bodol chai (Not revenge, we want change)” is the slogan written on the walls as one enters the narrow lanes and bylanes to approach Trinamul supremo Mamata Banerjee’s ‘humble’ two-storeyed house with a dirty Kalighat canal flowing behind it.

Ms Banerjee has already warned her cadres that there will be “no victory rallies” and “no retaliation”. For her team, “Didi is a victor in waiting”. Yet, the security forces are ready for any eventuality, a senior police officer indicated.

Even before the results are out, Ms Banerjee has decided to keep four portfolios to herself — industry, police, health and education. The Congress, a Trinamul ally, is watching the situation closely and might want to join the government if the Trinamul fails to secure a majority on its own.

“We will leave it to the Congress even if we have the numbers to form a government on our own,” a Trinamul leader said.

Of the 294 Assembly berths, the Trinamul is contesting 225, the Congress 67 and SUCI two.

Depending on the election results, Ms Banerjee could quit as Union railway minister and her trusted aide, Mukul Roy, minister of state for shipping, could take over from her.

The Marxists have not yet given up. The Reds and their mouthpiece Ganashakti feel that “Mamata’s projected victory is a media conspiracy”. The Marxists refuse to believe that 34 years of ruling West Bengal might come an end.

“When the EVMs will be opened tomorrow (on Friday) it will be found that the Left Front has won by a very good margin,” claimed Left Front chairman Biman Bose. However, despite, the pro-poor image of the Communists, the fiascos in Singur and Nandigram may be the reason for their waning popularity.

This could also be celebration time for the BJP as it expects to open its account in the state. “We will win seats in north and south Bengal,” BJP election in-charge of Bengal Siddharth Nath Singh said.

If the Trinamul wins, Ms Banerjee’s key focus area will be “industrialisation of the state”, which, however, was the Marxists’ nemesis.

There are indications that former Ficci secretary-general Amit Mitra, the Trinamul candidate from Khardah, could either take over as minister for finance or industries. A former IPS officer could be inducted as minister of state for home, while Ms Banerjee will keep the portfolio to herself.

MK or Jaya? TN will know by noon

The Assembly election, which saw less rhetoric and more cash-flow, carries the highest stakes in the recent political history of Tamil Nadu.

If winning a record sixth term is important to DMK chief M. Karunanidhi to ensure a smooth transition of leadership to his long-waiting prince, Mr M.K. Stalin, the stakes have risen shar-ply after the 2G scam threatened to engulf his daughter, party MP Kanimozhi.

He can ill afford losing this vote-count.

It is equally crucial for AIADMK leader J. Jayalalithaa to win and keep her flock together and in good spirits since the party has been tasting setbacks since the 2004 Lok Sabha polls.

She might have breathed easier had she retained trusted ally Vaiko in her camp but the coming of the DMDK’s Vijayakanth provided some advantage. As for Captain, his party cannot afford to fail badly as he has already slipped from his pedestal of being the ultimate chief ministerial option.

Almost all local exit polls have predicted a victory for the AIADMK while one said the DMK has a slight edge over its arch rival. The majority of these polls also said the fight was very close.

Though he slammed the Election Commission for holding the poll so early, on April 13, as it lessened campaign time, Mr Karunanidhi should now be thankful for the unintended “mercy” as it could have been a washout for his party had polling taken place after the CBI filed its supplementary chargesheet implicating Ms Kanimozhi in the 2G case.

Interestingly, the BJP did some spirited campaigning, importing national leaders and picking up new issues, such as alleged Sri Lankan war crimes and the killing of Tamil Nadu fishermen.

The BJP score could hurt the AIADMK in some constituencies which have a significant brahmin/urban middle class presence.

VS or Chandy? Day of reckoning for the two

Whether the ruling LDF wins or loses, the Chief Minister, Mr V.S. Achuthanandan, will go down in Kerala's electoral history as a wily politician who set the agenda for campaign 2011. He was the playmaker and his opponents merely reacted.

Thanks to him, the staple of the debate was the ice cream parlour sex scandal case and other allegations against the leaders of the Opposition.

Mr Achuthanandan based his anti-corruption campaign on the conviction of an Opposition politician, Mr R. Balakrishna Pillai, and the damning disclosures in the sex scandal. Both leaders being in the dock proved to be a liability for the Congress-led combine.

Had it been not for the defence minister, Mr A.K. Antony, the UDF would have been poorer. Mr Antony made all the difference but after a few days of his high voltage campaign, he seemed to run out of steam. However, Mr Achuthanandan kept on trumpeting his crusades among admiring crowds, who loved the way he spoke and his words.

The Opposition was left reacting to the CM’s resurrected charges, without a strategy to counter them effectively.

The Opposition leader, Mr Oommen Chandy, tried to set the debate on course by raising development issues with the help of a PowerPoint presentation. But once the sex and sleaze charges became the staple of discourse, nothing else seemed to work.

Mr Achuthanandan, taking himself for a Jyoti Basu, sought the vote for continuity like in West Bengal. Mr Chandy plumped for change that should jell with aspirations of Kerala youth and their ageing parents.

These were fine slogans but the debate centred on crass issues. Definitely not on Smart City, the need for more Central assistance for second generation reforms or better utilisation of the nearly Rs 40-billion NRK deposits in banks.