Kasuri or Kayani: Who is to be believed?
Who is to be believed, Kasuri or Kayani? New Delhi will not be surprised if it does not hear a satisfactory answer from Islamabad, but there is a view that clarity on the question would come handy as India and Pakistan take tentative steps to unlock the bilateral dialogue process in Bhutan, where foreign secretary Nirupama Rao will meet her Pakistani counterpart Salman Bashir on the margins of a Saarc meeting on February 6 and 7.
Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri has said in his recent visit to India that the Pakistan Army was on board the backchannel talks which took place on his watch as the foreign minister of Pakistan between 2002 and 2007, and that considerable progress had been achieved on contentious issues, including, but not limited to, Jammu and Kashmir, Siachen and Sir Creek.
At the same time, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, chief of the Pakistan Army, has said as recently as February 2010 that the Army will remain “India-centric” until the issue of Jammu and Kashmir and some other disputes are resolved.
By New Delhi’s own admission, it is difficult to assess whether the Pakistan Army supports rapprochement with India. An official privy to India’s engagement with Pakistan says Mr Kasuri is retired, suggesting that India and Pakistan are at a different stage in their relations today, particularly post-Mumbai attacks. Moreover, it is not known how ready the successor dispensation in Islamabad and General Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi is to discuss what was discussed in the backchannel.
That, and the anxiety to avoid a slanging match of the kind witnessed in February 2010 (during Mr Bashir’s visit to New Delhi) and in July 2010 (during external affairs minister S.M. Krishna’s visit to Islamabad), appear to weigh on New Delhi’s mind as the official says both sides could start with deliverables such as travel, trade and counter-terrorism.
New Delhi insists that the foreign secretaries’ meeting in Bhutan should at best be described as exploratory, and no dramatic announcements should be expected. For Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who has invested political capital on dialogue with Pakistan, the trajectory and outcomes of the Rao-Bashir and Krishna-Qureshi talks would determine whether he can persist with his vision of peace and make the journey to Pakistan.
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