The southwest monsoon reached the Kerala coast on Sunday, two days earlier than predicted, marking the beginning of the country’s annual rainy season. The India Meteorological Department also predicted that with monsoon rains lashing Kerala on Sunday, “favourable conditions” had set in for the monsoons to advance into other parts of the country in the next few days. This has brought considerable cheer to the farming community, which is mostly dependent on the rains for a good crop.
“The southwest monsoon has set in over most parts of the south Arabian Sea, Kerala, some parts of Tamil Nadu, the south Bay of Bengal and south Andaman Sea. Conditions are favourable for the advance of the southwest monsoon over some more parts of the Arabian Sea, the remaining parts of Kerala, some more parts of Tamil Nadu, south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and some parts of Karnataka in the next 2-3 days,” the IMD said.
The met office had earlier predicted the monsoon would set in over Kerala on May 31. “The amount of rainfall that will be witnessed during the four-month season is ‘most likely’ to be normal this year, at about 98 per cent of the Long Period Average. However, the forecast is not final and will be updated in June after other parameters, for which data would be available later, are taken into consideration. There might be some minor fluctuation,” a senior met official said.
The southwest monsoon rains in Kerala on Sunday brought respite to the farming community. The timing, spread and amount of rainfall are crucial for the farm economy. Kharif crops like rice, pulses and oilseeds are also sown with the arrival of the first rains.
Several international models monitoring El Nino-La Nina have indicated that sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific were warming up. “La Nina conditions, which could have been beneficial for the monsoon, have weakened and have reached Enso neutral condition. As per recent forecasts by international models, for the June-August season, there is a very good chance for neutral conditions to continue — a probability of 57 per cent — against a 22 per cent probability for the re-emergence of La Nina conditions and a 22 per cent probability for the development of El Nino conditions,” the official said.
“We are keeping a close eye on developments to ensure that the country is well prepared in case of any major changes in monsoons. Our scientists are closely monitoring developments,” the official added.
In Kerala, a majority of the 14 weather stations in the state and in Lakshadweep reported steady rains for the past two days and westerly winds had become strong, two sure indications of the arrival of the monsoon, said Thiruvananthapuram IMD director K. Santhosh. “We predicted the monsoon would arrive by May-end plus or minus four days, and it has (so) happened. We expect to get a normal monsoon this time,” he said.
Meteorologists have predicted heavy rains in the state in the next 48 hours, probably continuing till June 5. The monsoon will advance in the coming days to Tamil Nadu and Karnataka and is expected to move northwards to cover the entire country by July 15.