Pundits predict victory for UDF
Unravelling the political message of the poll percentage in Kerala is often more difficult than deciphering the Da Vinci Code.
However, poll pundits say that the higher turnout in Malabar on Wednesday indicates a Left tilt while in central Kerala and Malappuram, it has a pro-UDF tilt. The south, with a lower a poll share, will play the balancing act.
The myth that higher polling percentage favours the Congress-led coalition has been debunked over the years. Despite a low 65.74 per cent turnout, Congress candidate Shashi Tharoor, won by one lakh votes in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections in Thiruvananthapuram.
Psephologist Prof. G. Gopakumar said, “It is quite clear from the high percentages in central Kerala that there’s a minority mobilisation in favour of the UDF.”
He added that in northern Kasargod, Kozhikode, Kannur and Palakkad, the improved poll shares favour the Left in their traditional bastions. “The phenomenon cannot be credited to a favourable mobilisation by the UDF,” he remarked.
But K. Venu, ex-Naxalite and political commentator, said he would not go by the percentages since they could mean many things.
But trends were discernible, he pointed out.
“The community consolidation this time favoured the UDF, which was also reflected the Nair community softness towards it and some support from the pro-Ezhava SNDP, as against its wholesale support to the Left in 2006,” he said.
The leadership of Chief Minister V.S. Achuthanandan helped the Left by rallying all disgruntled cadres w-ho were fighting the hegem-ony of the dominant faction.
“I foresee a UDF win, but not a pronounced landslide as in the Lok Sabha elections 2009 and local council polls in 2010,” said Mr Venu.
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