Unusual timing may increase swine flu cases
The flu is back and with a scare again. More than a year after H1N1 virus was seen to be behaving mildly, it is expected to bounce back in 2012 with the experts warning that it may act differently this year and the cases are likely increase.
Experts say that the “unusual” timing of the virus in 2012 is enough for the prediction. “The number of cases this year are already more as compared to last year. On top of that, the onset of monsoon will only make the virus conducive to grow. The coming months of May and June can make things worse,” said an expert in National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC).
The NCDC has also asked its laboratories to send samples so as to find out if the virus has mutated. “With the vaccine in hand, it cannot be seen as a killer. However, sequencing is needed to be done to see if the virus is same or not. We have asked our laboratories to send samples so that we can move forward in that direction,” added the NCDC expert.
From January, 475 samples have already been tested for the virus, of which 71 samples have tested positive. Three people have succumbed. On the other hand in 2011, out of the 2,699 samples that were tested, 108 tested positive, of which 16 died.
The states have started asking for vaccines from the centre. In 2010, when the virus set off a wave of panic across the world, 80 people had died of swine flu in the country in December. In fact, India’s mortality rate for the virus in September 2010 was 2.3 per cent — much above the 0.9 per cent rate for the rest of the world. The virus may peak again now as the temperature will prove to be conducive for the virus to breed. While, a long-term study is underway in the Indian Council of Medical Research the virus was earlier found to be affecting “economically productive” age group.
A senior health ministry official said that it was found out that up to 40 per cent of the infected population was between 20-45 years of age, while children between five-15 years comprised another 30 per cent. The other high-risk group were pregnant women.
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