Will the Sena be able to retain its political grip?
For over 40 years, Shiv Sena chief Bal Keshav Thackeray occupied a significant space in Maharashtra’s politics. His death not only creates a vacuum in the state’s politics but also puts a question mark on the party’s ability to continue influencing state politics.
Impediments are not new for the Sena, but it was Bal Thackeray who resurrected the party each time.
Though the Sena does not have any other leader who commands the respect and adulation, or inspires the fear that Bal Thackeray did, it is unlikely that the party’s Marathi vote bank will face any immediate dwindling. “Balasaheb has paved the way for bringing Raj and Uddhav together. It will be difficult for Raj to go his own way in the near future. Therefore, the threat of the MNS to the Shiv Sena will not be as big as it was in 2009. By 2014, a realignment is likely in Maharashtra politics with MNS joining hands with the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance,” said a political observer.
However, in the longer run, the MNS could emerge to occupy the space of the Shiv Sena. In fact, some Sena leaders could choose to follow Raj, who, while in the Shiv Sena, was seen as Bal Thackeray’s heir-apparent.
The other party that would benefit would be the NCP. “There are many who will join the NCP as it is a growing party, and since the party wants to come to power on its own in 2014 it will give tickets to a number of leaders with mass base. So, for many Sena leaders, that would be the right choice. A very small percentage of cadre would go to the Congress,” said a political analyst who did not want to be identified.
The bigger question is who will fill the vacuum created by Bal Thackeray’s death.
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