Political parties are gearing up for byelections in 10 Assembly constituencies in Andhra Pradesh’s Telangana region as this may well determine not just the future of all the three regions of the state but also the future of the main political parties in the state.

In the past few decades, the situation in Telangana has remained volatile. In the 2012 general elections one-third of the Lok Sabha seats in the state may witness three- and four-cornered fights. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) has an advantage over the Congress while in coastal Andhra Pradesh Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP) has a strong presence. Andhra Pradesh, which has 42 parliamentary seats, may well swing marginally away from the Congress and, like Tamil Nadu, may be headed towards a coalition in the future.
Jaganmohan Reddy has considerable assets acquired during his father Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy’s two-term regime. Also, like the Reddy brothers of Karnataka, the “excessive assets” accumulated — that might have filled the party coffers — are beyond the authority of the Central leadership. But in coalition politics, one always has “options”. However, if Mr Jaganmohan Reddy is denied the post of chief minister, it remains to be seen if he will launch a regional party.
The Congress is committing a tactical error as it is yet to identify a leader for the future in Andhra Pradesh. We are well aware of the fact that caste politics exists in the north, but the south, too, is not far behind. No political party can afford to ignore this factor. The process of churning has begun and it would be politically naive to take anything for granted in this fluid situation.

IN THE Bihar Assembly elections, the performance of Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) will be watched closely. All regional parties have their own issues for the future and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the Trinamul Congress, the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Samajwadi Party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal, All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the TDP, the Biju Janata Dal and a host of small parties are all flexible in their approach. As the Congress aims to bag 272 Lok Sabha seats in the next elections, i.e. 72 more than its current 200 seats, in the 2014 general elections regional forces, along with the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Left, will do everything possible to protect their political interests. It seems that we are heading towards a new coalition pattern that may evolve in two or three stages.
No party is irrelevant at this stage and strengths and weaknesses can be expertly “hidden” in a coalition structure. The United Progressive Alliance is stronger in theory today compared to 2004 but look at the number of decisions deferred and referred to groups of ministers (GoM) and you will begin to see the conflict in the system.
The Women’s Reservation Bill has been forgotten and the issues associated with khap panchayats may well suffer a similar fate. Apart from normal “sermons” no one can predict when a decision on this and other issues will be taken by the GoMs.
Major political players will direct new alignments. Besides Mr Kumar, Mr Naidu, Ms Mamata Banerjee, Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mr Naveen Patnaik, we may well see Mr Sharad Pawar and the NCP making decisive moves.
As I have mentioned in my earlier columns, the NCP chief operates well beyond his “numbers” and has a personal rapport with every party. This makes a huge difference in political negotiations. Also, for the sake of political longevity and survival, every party, without exception, will indulge in complex political manoeuvres in the future months — no election is ever easy in coalition politics.

THE SITUATION in Jammu and Kashmir is showing signs of improvement but the political equations in the state may well change in the future as public discontent cannot be dismissed. Along with the anti-national elements and the separatists, there is also the issue of the political interests of the National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). In chief minister Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti both the parties have found credible leadership for the next decade. I think that Mufti Muhammad Sayeed and Farooq Abdullah — both now in their seventies — have done the right thing by passing the baton to the future. They should stay away from active politics.
The PDP fared well in the last election but the Congress, for the right reasons, aligned with the NC. But the Congress has failed to develop any credible leadership in Jammu and Kashmir. Future battles in the political arena will be fought between Mr Omar Abdullah and Ms Mehbooba Mufti. In the current crisis, the PDP leader has an advantage when it comes to public support. One cannot, therefore, blame the PDP for the stand it has taken.
The curbs and restrictions imposed on media in Jammu and Kashmir are unfortunate and will prove to be negative. Sometimes electoral verdicts generate huge expectations and non-performance and failure to identify with local aspirations can result in a fair amount of dissent. As things stand, Mr Omar Abdullah is facing a credibility issue.
In Jammu and Kashmir, politics has never been easy and like the rest of the country the younger generation — which constitute a sizeable section of the electorate — is moving beyond dynastic politics and connections and is inclined towards performance. The last election in Jammu and Kashmir had produced a record turnout so I think it would be a mistake to judge politics in the Valley on only the politics of the past.
Anti-incumbency trends in the state may be rather strong with a viable Opposition but I think both the PDP and the NC will gain in the Valley. The position in Jammu will be very different as we have a classic coalition structure in place. There are far too many moving parts in this political jigsaw puzzle with few ways to arrive at an easy “political solution”.

ALONG WITH our impressive gross domestic product growth “change” is taking place in every field. We continue to be surprised by both the positives and the negatives on many social and political issues that have existed for many years but are now coming into focus as there is greater awareness and participation by civil society.
This is the greatest positive development of the last decade. We often talk of our demographic pattern in terms of statistics but there is a driving change in our society where events overtake decisions as we hurtle to attain “superpower” status. India is changing rapidly and I sometimes wonder if our political system can keep pace with this change.

Arun Nehru is a former Union minister