The political trends are disturbing as a certain amount of desperation creeps into the system. As the Opposition parties consolidate their attack on the Congress, the allies of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), with an agenda of their own, are silent. Also, within the Congress personal differences have surfaced — issues are

clouded by secular and non-secular politics, minority and majority vote banks and coalition compulsions. Though the media is taking full advantage of the situation, it would be a mistake to take public opinion for granted.
Price rise is a major issue and is not restricted to the soaring prices of food articles alone. The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to raise interest rates to fight inflation, which is on track to hit double digits for the sixth straight month, has set the stage for more policy tightening.
While the “real” economy is doing well, the grim reality is that the aam aadmi is under pressure and even with a good monsoon we need a fair amount of good and effective governance. Sadly, this is not visible.
The pressure in both the Houses is evident as the issue of price rise is debated and sadly for the Congress “political accidents” continue to take place. Most of these are based on personal likes and dislikes and have little to do with either national or party interests.
The Commonwealth Games are due in two months and it is disgusting to see the political system being held to ransom by internal dissidence within the Congress. The party leadership, at all levels, seems powerless to deal with the situation.
I do not understand when members of the Congress, perhaps unhappy over their current status, take positions contrary to the party stand. Can these “views” be dismissed as part of “inner-party democracy”? We have seen views expressed on the Maoist violence, our relations with Pakistan, and now on Commonwealth Games 2010. Do these wilful political accidents form a special strategy designed to benefit the party? The Congress is taking public opinion for granted and lack of action by the government or the party is showing a weakness that will be exploited by others as political pressure increases by the day. The chaos in the sports field is not restricted to the Commonwealth Games — it extends to the Board of Control for Cricket in India where the governing council is trying to silence the sacked Indian Premier League commissioner Lalit Modi for offences jointly committed by them. In hockey, we have utter chaos. Thankfully, even if for a while, all this fades into the background as Sachin Tendulkar cracks a double century and does India proud.

THE CABINET reshuffle has been deferred as there are various issues that concern the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Trinamul Congress, both allies in the UPA. The Dravida Munettra Kazhagam (DMK) has made its objections clear on the issue of the 2-G spectrum allocation scam that involves communications minister A. Raja.
The Andhra Pradesh byelections results are out and it is no surprise that the Telangana Rashtra Samithi has swept the polls in this region. The Congress has much to do in the state and unless they have credible leadership it will be difficult for them to meet the challenge of the Telugu Desam Party and the dissident group headed by Jaganmohan Reddy and his supporters.
The Bihar elections loom on the horizon and as things stand the alliance of the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under chief minister Nitish Kumar is poised to win. But the winning margin may shrink due to the anti-incumbency factor and we may well see a revival in the fortunes of the alliance of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) unless the Congress takes this advantage away from.
A swing in the minority votes away from the JD(U) is crucial both for the Congress and the RJD-LJP combine. This has to be watched very carefully as the trend in Bihar was very different from the trend in the country during the Lok Sabha elections in 2009. Vote banks are a reality for every party and it’s no secret that the Congress had a surprise victory in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections due to the swing in the minority vote all over the country and a clear reaction to the Gujarat riots. In the 2009 general elections, the trend repeated itself and this vote will be crucial for the party in the 2014 general elections.
The Congress is not the only party playing the minority card. Several regional parties, including the Samajwadi Party, the RJD, the LJP, the Bahujan Samaj Party, the TDP, the Trinamul Congress, the DMK, and the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, need the minority vote. This, more than anything else, is what has isolated the National Democratic Alliance after the 2004 elections.

WE SPEAK of the rule of law but does it exist? Thousands are maimed or killed by terrorist attacks and criminal elements who provide them sanctuary and shelter. It takes 10-20 years to complete legal proceedings and even when a decision is taken we refuse to act on considerations which make little sense. In this situation, it would be useful to take an “opinion poll” on encounters by security forces and the police. I am sure those in all three wings of governance will be surprised by the public reaction.
The protection enjoyed by those in governance is not available to the general public and you cannot conduct governance by giving “sermons” on morality and the rule of law. I remember watching a movie, A Wednesday and I was surprised and shocked to see that after the movie got over the entire audience got up and clapped in appreciation. The movie was about an aam aadmi who eliminates a gang of four terrorists while making his point against the system!
The situation in Gujarat is tense. Amit Shah is currently under arrest as the prime accused in the kidnapping and murder of Sohrabuddin Sheikh, who was killed by the state police in a false encounter. As the Central Bureau of Investigation conducts its investigations, the public will be sharply divided on this issue. This case alone could take a decade to determine.

Arun Nehru is a former Union Minister