Nov 08 : The political trend continues to be favourable to the Congress whereas the Opposition, both at the Centre and in the states, remains fragmented. I sometimes wonder if this weakness will lead to re-alignment of political forces.

The electoral battle for the Firozabad parliamentary seat in Uttar Pradesh is on. The Samajwadi Party (SP) will take on the Congress with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in the third place. The SP — on its home turf — faces a serious challenge from the Congress and Rahul Gandhi. The general opinion is that the Congress is going to sweep Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls in 2011. Despite the Rajdhani fiasco, the trend in West Bengal is strongly in favour of coalition of the Trinamul Congress (TMC) and the Congress. The situation in Kerala is also in favour of the Congress. In Karnataka, as things stand, the Left will make little progress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will face problems. Soon, the same situation is going to arise in Madhya Pradesh.

The Congress cannot be blamed for the chaos in either the Left or the BJP. Also, it is not the responsibility of the ruling party to strengthen the Opposition. The only state where the Congress is in trouble is Andhra Pradesh where, if "financial power" negates political authority, then Chandrababu Naidu, the Telugu Desam Party and other regional parties will get an opportunity to return to power.

The Congress is static as the current chief minister K. Rosaiah is at best a temporary appointment and the Congress is yet to deal with Jagan Mohan Reddy and his group of MPs and MLAs. In Maharashtra and Haryana, the Assembly elections are over but the battle over portfolios continues. The situation in Maharashtra is complicated. I think the Congress, which has greater number of seats, is justified in demanding more portfolios.

Coalition politics is about power. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar may have fewer seats but he more than makes up for this with his political linkages. There are many who can rally around Mr Pawar in Maharashtra and other parts of the country. The Congress and the NCP need to arrive at a power-sharing agreement at the earliest, as one cannot predict political accidents in a surcharged situation.

The NCP will have to yield ground based on the political reality. Also, Mr Pawar faces a "succession" problem which cannot be wished away. Time and opportunity do not wait for anyone, especially in politics.

The Haryana Cabinet will no doubt be powered by the six independents (all will get ministerial berths). But can stability be achieved only after a compromise has been struck with Bhajan Lal, his sons and their team of six MLAs? Had chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda delayed the elections, he would not have secured even 40 seats in the 90-seat Assembly. It is no secret that all the three major groups in the Congress opposed him and had even put up "rebel" candidates.

The revival of the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) surprised almost everyone and the Congress has much to think about in the immediate future.

Political priorities were ignored for real estate benefits, though the chief minister alone is not responsible for this. The Congress high command has much to do in dealing with the party’s internal politics in the state.

The 10 byelections in West Bengal in 2011 are another test, both for the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) and Mamata Banerjee. Of the 10 seats going to the polls, the TMC holds Bongaon, Contai, Alipore, Eegra and Srirampore, the Congress won Sujapur and Malda whilst the Left in 2006 won in Kalchini, Rajgunj and Belgachia.

The Left seems to have conceded defeat even before the byelections are held. Various news reports suggest that there is a clear lack of effort in trying to retrieve lost ground in these constituencies. The CPI(M) cadres seem to have melted away as public is strongly in favour of the TMC. This is the first time we are witnessing a situation where the ruling party and the administration is conceding defeat even before a political battle has taken place!

Several NEWS reports giving details of events in Jharkhand, where former chief minister Madhu Koda and many ministers are being investigated for corruption, were extremely depressing. One can only hope that the Central Bureau of Investigation will be able to prosecute Mr Koda, his ministers and the bureaucrats who have made a mockery of governance and literally plundered the state.

The situation is equally grave as we go through the list of assets and the methods adopted by Karnataka high court Chief Justice P.D. Dinakaran. I wonder what would happen to an ordinary citizen of the country if s/he was found guilty of these indiscretions?

All credit must go to the lawyers as they battled the system. But, sadly, the entire judicial system has been put under a cloud by Justice Dinakaran.

Is there any reason why the law of the land should not apply to him? I am, in fact, surprised that he is yet to offer his resignation.

The Supreme Court judges have set a very good example for others by declaring their assets. I think it is time we took the "asset" declaration by all those in governance seriously and all assets beyond "normal" considerations must be subject to both internal and external probe. Because of a few corrupt people a very wrong signal is being sent to the public that all bureaucrats and babus are corrupt.

A small minority of the corrupt and tainted are holding the entire system to ransom and this must not be allowed at any cost.

Arun Nehru is a former Union minister