Mutinous footfalls?

Less than halfway through its five-year term, the second UPA government appears paralysed, if not perpetually on the edge of a precipice. Despite his personal probity, the image of Manmohan Singh has taken a battering — he is being seen (by, among others, his own erstwhile admirers) as a person no longer in command, as a spineless leader of a fractious coalition torn by dissension, whether on the so-called poverty line or on the inept handling of the biggest scandal in independent India relating to the undervaluation and misallocation of 2G spectrum.

One is not suggesting here that the government is about to collapse the day after tomorrow. But what has come as a surprise to most is the sharp deterioration in popular perception, not just about the performance of the government and its ability to deal with the pressing problems facing the country but also about the capabilities of Dr Singh and Sonia Gandhi. The atrophy in governance goes beyond the helplessness of the ruling elite in curbing corruption in high places. The government seems to be completely at a loss in trying to tackle two serious problems: runaway food inflation in an economy whose rate of growth has distinctly decelerated; and, growing unrest over the formation of a new state of Telangana.
The present predicament of the “powers that are” is particularly paradoxical, for the political opposition to the Congress-led coalition is pathetically weak. The BJP is struggling with its leadership issue. L.K. Advani is not (and clearly does not want to be) in semi-retirement. But after him, who? Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley or Narendra Modi? The BJP is yet to come to terms with the humiliating circumstances that led to the resignation of former Karnataka chief minister B.S. Yeddyurappa, who used to head the first state government in southern India controlled entirely by the right-wing, Hindu nationalist outfit, which was earlier derogatorily described as a party of the “cow-belt”.
The political Left is in an equally big — if not bigger — mess. Its bastion in the east has crumbled after 34 years. The Communists are yet to recover from the ignominious manner in which they were decimated in West Bengal by a one-woman brigade whose strength they had clearly under-estimated. The Marxists were able to hold their own in Kerala; they might have scraped through victorious had their stalwarts stopped squabbling. Tripura is too small to matter in national politics.
Many of the regional parties too are in a sorry state, for instance, the Telugu Desam Party, the Shiromani Akali Dal, the Shiv Sena and the Asom Gana Parishad. However, the Trinamul Congress, the Biju Janata Dal, the AIADMK and the Janata Dal (United) are doing well — only the last one is part of the BJP-led NDA coalition. Still, given the current state of the Congress-led UPA, speculation is rife about who could head a non-Congress coalition should a situation of the kind that existed in March 1977 or December 1989 return to a now more-fragmented Indian polity. Would such an individual be Nitish Kumar or Naveen Patnaik?
The void left by the ineffectual Opposition has, to an extent, been filled up by sections of civil society and the media. The desperation of important government functionaries has become evident from two recent developments: first, from the manner in which criticism has been levelled against an important Constitutional authority, the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (with a bit of help from a few friendly journalists) and then, from doubts being raised about the working of a new and important law that strengthens democratic institutions, namely, the Right to Information Act (in the wake of the disclosure of an important note relating to the 2G scam sent by the finance ministry to the PMO).
More than Team Anna and a feisty section of the media, what has got the government really worried is what it calls judicial “overreach”. Simply put, there is considerable consternation in official circles about judges allegedly pandering to popular anger against politicians as well as their pals from the portals of industry and business. The integrity of the last two former Chief Justices of India was questioned. The incumbent is seen to be straight as a ramrod. Under his tutelage, the judiciary is apparently hyperactive, keen to assert its autonomy like almost never before.
After having shouted himself hoarse terming the threat posed by Maoists the country’s “biggest internal security threat”, Dr Singh is not hesitating using the phrase “crony capitalism” in his public utterances. Times are changing. Yes indeed! In public meetings, normally reticent corporate captains have not been shy of calling a few of their counterparts “oligarchs”, while others have wondered if the ostentatious lifestyles of a few could sow the seeds of “revolution” in a country of a “million mutinies now” where over 80 per cent of the population are supposed to profess fatalistic philosophies when not espousing faith in reincarnation.
Is it surprising then that the notional figure of `32 per person per day in urban areas and `26 for her rural counterpart as defined in the “destitution line” — as the so-called poverty line should rightly be called — should arouse such a controversy that Dr Singh’s right-hand man, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, be hard put to defend his government? The short point: it is taking less and less to rattle the government.
On the political front, Rahul Gandhi still seems reluctant to jump into the fray even as there is no dearth of sycophants, not to mention senior Congress leaders, who continue to urge him to take his tasks a bit more seriously and diligently than what he has done so far. Elections in Uttar Pradesh could prove to be the proverbial gamechanger. India’s grand old party is hoping that it will be able to replicate its performance in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections by winning in a fourth of the Assembly constituencies and perhaps form the government in Lucknow with the Samajwadi Party.
But that’s nearly six months away. A week is a long time in politics, certainly in India. A lot of action is expected well before then.

The writer is an educator and commentator